An objective, detailed post would entail me trying to predict and live through this game of incredible mismatches in favor of Penn State which would culminate in a final score that is something like Penn State 100 and Michigan 0. Although I don't think it will be a blowout (gut feeling), there is a good chance it will be and I would have to live through it at the game, I choose not to live through it before the game if the nightmare will happen.
The numbers speak for themselves:
Penn State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Penn State averages 482 yards of offense and 45.3 points per game, both #1 in the Big Ten.
Michigan's defense has surrendered 344.2 yards and 24.8 points per game, #6 and #9 respectively in the Big Ten.
Penn State now runs a spread with a mobile quarterback and Daryl Clark.
Michigan has not had any clue on how to stop a spread team this year especially with a mobile quarterback (Juice).
Penn State is #1 in the Big Ten in Pass Efficiency.
Michigan is 2nd to last in the Big Ten in pass defense and 8th in the conference in pass efficiency defense.
And just to be safe, the Nittany Lions have a running back averaging over 7 yards a carry and 100 yards per game in Evan Royster.
Michigan's only hopes of stopping this defense is if they somehow don't allow Penn State to neutralize the D-line, which every team has done, and if they finally change schemes and stop playing three of our worst defensive players (the safeties) at the same time. They need to start blitzing instead of staying back in coverage and since Penn State has three very good wideouts (Williams, Butler, Norwood), try maybe putting Trent, Warren, and Boubacar (played pretty well last weekend) on them instead of letting the slot guy get matched up with Thompson (see Arrelious Benn in Illinois) and give yourselves a chance. I think they'll stick with what they have been doing which only can mean good things for Penn State.
Advantage: Penn State, obviously
Michigan Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Do I even need to say anything here? I certainly don't want to.
Advantage: Penn State obviously
Special Teams:
I wish Michigan could at least have an advantage here since they've learned to hang onto the ball and they have the best punter in the Big Ten in Zoltan who will have to play great for Michigan to have a chance (like pin Penn State inside the ten everytime) but:
Penn State's kicker Kevin Kelly is very good (9-10 on the year 2-3 from 50 out).
Penn State has a decent punter if they even need to punt in Jeremy Boone.
Penn State has the best returner in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country in Derrick Williams. The unit is #1 in kickoff returns with 2 TDs already and second in punt returning with a TD there too.
K.C. Lopata is becoming less and less reliable.
Advantage: Penn State
Prediction:
Completely subjective and homerish defying all odds pick here (surprise surprise). Somehow Michigan will win this thing. I know people don't think Penn State is
looking past this one since they have not beaten Michigan in like a decade, but let's be honest. Michigan is 2-4 and lost to Toledo and PSU has a huge game at 6-1 O State next weekend. They are looking ahead. There is absolutely no reason I should think Michigan will win on paper, but the defense will finally fix themselves up while Jay Pa and Penn State's offensive coordinators do what they did last year vs. Michigan, Threet will be healthy, Michigan will only turn it over once somehow, and Michigan will get 4 big plays to score enough to win.I don't know why I am thinking positively and setting myself up for disappointment in the form of a 50 point blowout, call it a gut feeling, but:
Michigan 28 Penn State 24
There you have it...I'm an idiot! Repeat of 2005 baby!
Go Blue!
5 comments:
I'm with you: supremely stupid & unfounded optimism:
Michigan 29 - Penn St. 28
There's a reason they still have to play the games, right?
Go Blue!
Rushi-time to take off the Maize and Blue glasses. Face it, we are a terrible team this year.
Thanks for the post. It is great that you compare both of them with statistics. I think with the enormous gap between those two it was impossible since the beginning but we always want that our team wins. even in these kind of games.
despite my severe disappointment with how the dual played out. I wasn't expecting a win, but was at least hoping for a competitive match. Oh well. On to Iowa and Minnesota
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