Danger Game: Michigan-Northeastern

Tonight, Michigan basketball faces their stiffest competition yet, their first Division I opponent in Northeastern.  The Huskies are predicted to finish second in the CAA.  Andy Katz and Doug Gottleib of ESPN are amongst the national experts who believe Northeastern can be this year's Gonzaga... Davidson... a national cinderella.  Northeastern is led by Jr. guard Matt Janing, a preseason 1st team all-CAA performer.  The Huskies have an intimidating front line, with Spates, Adako and Ojougboh, standing at 6'8, 6'8, and 6'9, respectively.  Michigan better have their 'A' game tonight, or they will not be heading to New York City next week to play UCLA.

Live coverage of Michigan-Northeastern can be heard on the WCBN Sports Stream, available on wcbn.org beginning at 7:50pm tonight with Rob Salaman and Rushi Vyas on the call.

UM vs the GLIAC: Round 2

Michigan Basketball will take on its second opponent in as many games from the mighty GLIACconference for the 2K Sports /Coaches vs. Cancer tournament.  Having already beaten tiny SVSU, Michigan now faces a program from even farther north in Michigan Tech.  The Huskies were picked to finish second in the GLIAC preseason coaches poll, with the Grand Valley State “Spartan Killers” ranked first.  If you’ve never been to Tech, just think of the movie “Fargo”…except more trees, snow, and a pregnant Frances McDormand isn’t solving crimes. 

 

Anyways, here’s a few things to look for Tuesday:

The Starting Five: Coach Beilein went with a line-up of Gibson, Wright, Harris, Douglass, and Merrit last game.  While Wright did a great job of forcing turnovers and being active with his on-the ball defense, I thought DeShawn Sims did a much better job on offense and on the defensive boards.  Remember, the Wolverines were out rebounded by the Cardinals 39-34 last Thursday.  Sims as a starter makes sense, but Beilein said he likes Sims at the 5 and may stick with him off the bench.  This game should show if he intends to stick with the plan.

 

This game isn’t being played at Yost…which is the only place Michigan Tech would ever have a prayer of beating Michigan.  The Huskies biggest frontcourt players are two 6’7 Freshman….meaning Zach Gibson gets another week to work on his low-post game before he faces a real test.  Gibson showed signs of a legitimate basketball skill set during the SVSU game, so it’ll be interesting to see if he continues his progress.

 

Benching Ben? I don’t know what we are going to see from Ben Cronin, if anything.  Cronin looked like an efficient passer out of the post, but only played 3 minutes and looked like he struggled.  A lot of people are high on this kid and think he could make a difference.  To all those people, I say that size is no substitute for skill and this kid is the poster-child for redshirt freshmen. He has a lot of potential, but he is a very raw player who would do better to get a year of practice and strength training under his belt.  Plus, I think he is injured far worse than people inside that program are letting on.  (All aboard the Gibson bandwagon!) 

 

Speaking of the Freshmen, can anyone think of a good nickname for the Douglass/Novak duo? The fact that they have almost the exact same skill set and hair style, and will be confused with each other for the rest of this year by all broadcasters, really calls for a moniker. So far, all I’ve got is “The Cabbage-Patch Twins.”  It stays until I hear something better.

 

Tuesday’s game is free for students (just like every other game that doesn't involve Duke and MSU).  The weather has finally turned towards typical November temperatures, but expect decent sized crowds this week, especially if Michigan gets a win the first night.  With Michigan Football coming to a close and Hockey becoming something of an underachiever, fans could be looking to this team as its savior for the Fall Sports season.  The answer to this could be found in attendance numbers for the Basketball games compared to Friday’s Hockey attendance vs. WMU.  More on this later in the week.

Programming Schedule

All games, unless noted, are available on the WCBN Sports Stream

Tuesday- November 11th

6:50- Michigan Basketball vs Michigan Tech

Wednesday- November 12th

4:50 or 7:50- Michigan Basketball vs IUPUI or Northeastern

7:00- Michigan Volleyball vs Ohio State [Available on MGoBlue.com]

Friday- November 14th

7:30- Michigan Hockey vs Western Michigan [Also available on 88.3 WCBN FM]

Saturday- November 15th

12:00- Michigan Football vs Northwestern

WCBN College Picks after Week 11

Congrats to Rushi with a 5-0 week.  Here's where we stand: 

1 Rob (29-22-1): 36 pts

2 Stu (22-12-1): 33 pts

3 Rushi (24-17-1): 32 pts

4 JK (20-19-1): 21 pts

5 Seid (21-23-1): 19 pts

6 Wiggles (16-18-1): 14 pts

7 Tobin (17-22-1): 12 pts

7 Bill (12-12-1): 12 pts

9 Jeremy (14-21): 7 pts

--------------------------------

Christian (4-1): 7 pts

Nick (3-2): 4 pts

Andrew (6-9): 3 pts

Matt (4-6): 2 pts

Kevin (2-3): 1 pt

Mike (1-4): negative 2 pts

Michigan's Last Chance to win a Trophy: Brown Jug '08

This game is important in that unless Michigan plans on awarding everyone the equivalent of a pee-wee baseball or soccer league trophy at the end of the season, Michigan will have to win this game to leave the season with any hardware at all. As ugly as the Brown Jug is this would at least give the seniors something minimal to hang their hats on.

Probably not going to happen though.

Minnesota Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Michigan's defense is now 90th in the country in total defense and 101st in pass defense. Blame whoever you want but simply this is everyone's fault as it was Rodriguez's decision to switch to the 3-3-5 last week, Shafer's defense looked terrible before that switch anyways, and I don't think I have ever seen a team miss as many tackles as the players have this season. So, flat out, the defense is terrible and I was a complete moron to think they would be awesome this year.

What happened against a terrible Purdue offense last week with their 3RD STRING QB spells a nightmare for what will happen this week with Minnesota's experienced starting QB Adam Weber and All-American caliber wide receiver Eric Decker. Weber can run (344 yards and 3 TDs) and has grown to an extremely efficient passer this year (66% for 2151 yards and 11 TDs to 4 INTs) which means absolute disaster already regardless if Decker plays or not.

Before last week's performance I probably would have said Michigan's defense has a shot. Minnesota has a young offensive line that has given up over 2 sacks per game which should normally be an advantage for the experienced Michigan D-line.
Also, Minnesota has struggled to get their running game going this season (94th in the country WORSE THAN MICHIGAN'S). Forget it though as I still cannot erase last week's performance out of my mind where Michigan got no pressure on a first time starting quarterback (0 sacks) and gave up 256 yards on the ground to what had been an anemic Purdue rushing game, mainly due to everything that was opened up by a running QB in Justin Siller.

If you've read any of these before you are probably sick of my optimism and I am trying to search for some here, but I simply cannot. Minnesota's offense is not that good, but Michigan's offense is probably the remedy for that just as it has been for many struggling offenses this season (except Michigan's). The defense has stepped it up at times this year, but everything seems to be going downhill especially with the switch to the 3-3-5 last week.

I don't know if they switch back to the 4-3 or not, but at this point does it really even matter? Missed tackles, Donovan Warren at safety, terrible play from the linebackers= success for opposing offenses. Minnesota and the mobile Weber will see probably get to experience some of that success tomorrow.

Advantage: Minnesota

Michigan Offense vs. Minnesota Defense

Minnesota is not a very good defense either yardage wise. They give up 132 yards per game on the ground and are 82nd in the nation in pass defense. Too bad it doesn't matter how bad they might be because Nick Sheridan will most likely be starting with Threet probably out with a concussion suffered in last week's game.

And oh yeah, turnover prone Sheridan will have to lead an offense against a Minnesota defense that has used a plethora of forced turnovers to propel them to their 7-2 record this season. Minnesota is 2nd in the NATION in turnover margin. They've forced 26 turnovers on the year (tied for 1st in the country). If Threet doesn't play, and it's likely he won't, Sheridan will probably be throwing it to Minnesota players more than to Michigan. The only hope is to hand it off to Minor who was the only bright spot in Michigan's offense last week and continues to show that he will be the starter next year.

Justin Feagin has been moved back to QB with Threet's injury and I truly believe we will actually see him in tomorrow. My dream scenario for the offense is that Feagin comes in and has a Justin Siller-esque day tomorrow coming out of nowhere. The coaching staff already blew his redshirt by playing him on special teams last week so in all honestly, what the hell do you have to lose. They've been reluctant to play Feagin all year because "he's not ready" but I certainly hope to see him at least for entertainment purposes. Siller wasn't supposed to be ready either, but he was.

There's my optimism creeping back in...but back to reality. Sheridan playing means turnovers and another long long long day. The only hope is to be completely one-dimensional and hand it off to Minor every play hoping that Minnesota's defense pulls a Michigan and misses tackles all over. The O-line has been better, but still not nearly good enough for this to happen.

Advantage: Minnesota (at least play Feagin for our entertainment...please?)

Special Teams:

Michigan finally could return the ball last week with Odoms' touchdown and a couple good kick returns by Cissoko. Michigan needs some returns for TD's this week because scoring won't be coming from the offense. Minnesota has given up a kick return TD this year, but otherwise have been solid so it won't be easy to get scores there.

Minnesota's return game is not very explosive (no TDs) but they have a solid kick returner in Troy Stoudermire averaging 25.6 a return and punt returner Marcus Sherels averaging 11.9. But Michigan has been very good in punt coverage and pretty good in kick coverage as of late. From what I've seen of Michigan and looking at Minnesota's numbers, I actually think Michigan might have a better return game at this point. But then again they have to hold onto the ball.

Zoltan and the punting unit is still #1 in the nation. But Justin Kucek for the Gophers is pretty good too averaging 41.6 a punt. Joel Monroe is a decent kicker for the Gophers this season (9-13) though he has missed two from inside 30 yards. Lopata is, as we know, meh.

I actually give the edge to Michigan here because I still want to keep some hope for whatever reason and the return game could very well be better than Minnesota now.

Advantage: Michigan

I really hope the team can keep some hardware this season by keeping the Jug so the seniors won't be remembered for losing everything. This senior class does not deserve to be called an underacheiving class because it does not have some of the players that earned it a top 10 recruiting class upon its arrival (more details on this for next week's preview on senior day).

Unfortunately, the defense in its current state against a pretty mistake free Minnesota offense led by a mobile QB in Weber=disaster. Unfortunately a Sheridan-led offense against the defense that has forced more turnovers than any other team in the nation this season=catastrophe. Regardless of if special teams plays well, disaster and catastrophe above should be too much to overcome.

I can't find any optimism for tomorrow as of right now. I can't believe it. Even the homer inside me understands. Its time to lower my expectations (especially with Sheridan in). I can't take anymore disappointment.

Final Score: Minnesota 27 Michigan 10



Tear. The season of disappointment continues

I hope I'm wrong but needless to say, its not looking good...

18 Wins? "Yes, We Can!"

After watching Michigan play in their only exhibition of the season, I came away with two main thoughts.  The first was that I never should have tried to eat two of the hot dogs the Crisler staff set out for the media.  These things looked like they had been saved and reheated from last season.  I had been warned by a friend not to try these, but I did not eat dinner.  I’ll just say the second half of the game was tough to get through.  But if the University is going to give a new wardrobe to every student that attends a game, can they at least make a “scarce” press core a little more comfortable in the food and beverage department?

The second (and more important) thought I was left with is that your Michigan Wolverines will win 18 games this season.

 ...and I swear to you, I am writing this sober.

Yes, I know it’s early and we have seen ONE game (an exhibition against a bottom-feeder in the GLIAC), but I am confident in this prediction. Here’s why:

Stu Douglass is for real:  Big Ten coaches will look back 2 years from now and wonder why they hadn’t come after this kid harder when he was a high school senior.  He is that good.  On multiple possessions, Douglass directed traffic like a seasoned veteran and let the offense come to him.  He made one or two bad passes, but the poise he showed in transition was well beyond his years.  He hit threes from the parking lot and has a sniper’s touch.  Crisler Arena’s “Ssstttttuuuuuuu…” chant will be heard early and often in his career.

 

Zach Gibson:  I know you’ve hated on him. I’ve hated on him. And as much as this may shock people…and I never thought I'd say this... Zach Gibson can play!!!

 

I know that was jolting so I’ll give you a moment…

 

Gibson looked good running the floor, was 2 for 3 from behind the arch, and added two blocks to his 11 points.  He looked for his shot with no signs of hesitation. In a conference where quality centers are few and far between ( MSU’s Sutton and OSU’s Mullens are the only C’s of note), it won't take much for Gibson to give consistent contribution to this team.

 

Manny Being Manny: Harris deferred to his teammates for much of the first half, making sure to work through the offensive sets.  Because Harris (and his teammates, for that matter) were so focused on running the play all the way through, they passed up open shot after open shot and were eventually left with an empty play clock.  In the second half, Beilein turned the offense loose and Manny was able to create off the dribble and in transition.  If Douglass gets hot during the season, defenses will part like the Red Sea and Harris will slash his way to 17-19 points per game.

 

The Zone:  Last year, Michigan looked lost and confused when trying to figure out the spacing of John Beilein’s specialized 1-3-1 defense. Not anymore. While it was SVSU as the opponent, the spacing looked much better and they did a better job playing as a unit.  Rebounding was an issue, but look for that to change once a line-up is established

 

The Road Home:  The Wolverines have a tough schedule, but can get to Jan 1^st with at least 8 wins if you give them loses to Duke, Maryland, and a Coaches Vs Cancer opponent.  That means they would need to win 10 games in the Big Ten after winning only 6 conference games with a much weaker team last season. It will be close, but I have them winning 6 games at home (assuming for at least one win against a top tier team), with wins at Iowa, Minnesota, PSU, and Northwestern on the road.  This is very achievable.  The home crowd tonight proved that 1) College kids will watch basketball in exchange for free stuff and 2) This team has the capability of filling most of Crisler’s upper bowl for Big Ten play if they get off to a good start…and keep the free stuff coming.

Michigan 81 Saginaw Valley State 55

Some quick thoughts on the game from earlier tonight:

-Michigan looked much more energetic in the 2nd half (trailed by as much as 7 in the 1st half).

-The game seemed to turn around when Michigan switched to the 1-3-1 zone at the end of the first half.

-I was very impressed with Stu Douglass and Nick Novak.  Their ability to shoot from the perimeter should provide much more space for Manny Harris.

-Speaking of Harris, he looked more like himself in the 2nd half, after a quiet 2 point 1st half performance.

-Granted it was against a Division II school, but DeShawn Sims and Zach Gibson played more physical, at times closer to the basket.

-I would red shirt Ben Cronin.  He played the final 4 minutes and was noticeably limping.

-Rebounding remains a huge problem (out-rebounded 39-34).

-Free throw shooting needs to improve, just 22 of 37 tonight.

-The game was officiated very inconsistently.  SVSU was called for their 7th team foul inside the final 30 seconds of the 1st half.  In the 2nd half, both teams were in the penalty before the 12 minute mark.

-Michigan officially opens their season against Michigan Tech at 7pm on Tuesday night at Crisler.

Top 10 Reasons Why Michigan Basketball Will Win 20

The optimistic viewpoint (bare with me)...

#10 Zach Gibson- He emerges as a legitimate starting center in the Big 10 Conference (again an optimistic view).

#9 Weakness of the Big 10- Indiana is horrible. Northwestern, Penn State and Iowa should not be much better. Ohio State, Minnesota and Illinois are young.  Outside of Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin, the conference is way down (as usual).

#8 Kelvin Grady will NOT play beneath the basket in the 1-3-1 zone (we can only hope).

#7 Ben Cronin, Stu Douglass and Zack Novak-  None of these three redshirt and play significant minutes.  Cronin will provide much needed depth in the front court and Douglass and Novak become the 3rd and 4th options offensively.

#6 Free tickets, new baskets and shot clock at Crisler- The atmosphere at Crisler improves greatly.  Michigan sells out at least 3 other games besides Duke.

#5 Easier Schedule- While Duke remains and UConn was added, Michigan avoids Harvard this year.

#4 Improved three-point shooting- Despite the three point arc moving back, Michigan will shoot over 40 percent from beyond the perimeter this year.

#3 Laval Lucas-Perry- If only he could play in games before January. Everything I have read on Perry is that he will be a stud.  The transfer point guard from Arizona takes over the starting reigns halfway through January.

#2 Manny Harris & DeShawn Sims- Harris fails to have a sophomore slump and exceeds the hype of being a preseason 1st team all-big 10 player. Sims not only shoots three-pointers this year.  Not many others teams in the Big 10 will have a 1-2 combination as dynamic as Michigan.

#1 John Beilein- Michigan fully grasps the Beilein system in year 2.  The Wolverines cause close to 20 turnovers a game. After 2 wins in the Big 10 tournament, Michigan is a surprising bubble team selected for the NCAA Tournament.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Michigan Basketball LIVE on WCBN Thursday

Good to see the increased traffic on the site.  WCBN will be broadcasting all Michigan home basketball games LIVE this year for the first time.  Our coverage begins Thursday night at 6:50pm with Michigan vs. Saginaw Valley State in an exhibition game from Crisler.  You can listen on the WCBN Sports Stream, available on wcbn.org.

UM Basketball '08-09: Get Pumped! (No, seriously...be excited.)

The Michigan Men’s Basketball team will take the floor in their exhibition opener this Thursday against the Cardinals of Saginaw Valley State University (Side note: I have been to SVSU and their campus is literally the size of the Diag, or the distance from the Flagpole to the Grad. And that’s including their entire student housing complex, too. I’m not kidding. It’s that small.).  Now, things haven’t exactly been great for this program in the past few years.  Sure, they lost to Harvard and their former coach (Tommy Amaker) last season... Yeah, they lost to Duke by almost 40 points last year...OK, so the leading shot blocker in the Big Ten last year (Ekpe Udoh) decided to transfer to Baylor, the incoming recruiting class doesn’t have a Top 50 player, and their big foreign recruit wasn’t actually allowed to play in the NCAA.

….But you should still be excited for 4 big reasons which will have you watching and cheering (and maybe even buying tickets?!?!) by season’s end.

(And let’s get the obvious out of the way for the cynics out there: I am not going to cop-out and use the old “At least it’ll give us something to watch other than gut-wrenching Michigan Football.”  I’ve made my peace with this season. So should you).

The Big Ten is weak and there will be parity:  At Big Ten Media day, Purdue was voted the pre-season favorite with MSU and Wisconsin behind them.  While I do think there is something to be said for Matt Painter returning 5 starters, I just don’t see Purdue being all that great.  I think Robbie Hummel received the pre-season MVP because…well, I’m still trying to figure that out.  The guy wasn’t even voted MVP of his TEAM last year (that award went to Keaton Grant).  I think Purdue will be good, but there isn’t much that separates the top tier teams from each other. Throw in OSU and you have your legitimate top 4.  This leaves the rest of the Big Ten to fight it out.  I think Michigan (if they can get some key wins on the road) could sneak into the top 5. Three of the remaining teams (PSU, NU, and Iowa) don’t look like they have a shot, Indiana’s program is still trying to get out of “3-Ring Circus” mode, leaving Minn, Illinois, and Michigan to fight it out. I like the Wolverines in that case.

 

A Star Is Born: People have ripped UM for not having a star player with NBA-type talent since Jamal Crawford.  That ends this year with the emergence of Manny Harris.  The Detroit native averaged 16 points as a freshman and only looks to get better with a year’s experience in John Beilein’s system already under his belt.  If the Wolverines can get consistent contribution from behind the three-point line (look for newcomer Stu Douglass to prove his value here), that will spread the floor and “Manny Fresh” will average close to 20 points for the season.

 

If you give them free stuff, they hopefully might come:  The Men’s Basketball program has pulled out all the stops and are giving prizes to kids willing to buy tickets/attend games this season.  Prizes include tickets to the OSU football games, MDen gift cards, and even free books for the semester.  They are giving away just about everything but the keys to Rich Rodriguez’s car.  This (in addition to a winning record through the pre-season) will hopefully bring people to the games and create an arena atmosphere that goes along with a winning program.  If the Athletic Department can get 8,000 people in Crisler on a consistent basis, that will be good for at least 2 wins against one of the top four teams).

 

The Big House isn’t the only thing under construction:  Coach Beilein is building a program.  His players have not always been the most highly recruited, but they act as pieces to the puzzle that is their intricate offensive system.  Beilein is big on role guys, and the guys he brought in at WVU (guys like Kevin Pittsnogle and Mike Gansey, neither who made it big in the pros) were role players but were the reasons his 2005 team made it to the Elite Eight.  He has a track record that shows his ability to do great work with “adequate” talent.  A winning record will give him more than his fair crack at good recruits in the state in the coming years.

This year’s team will be a solid one and, if all else, an interesting one to watch.  Michigan Basketball won’t return to the prominence of its teams of the 90’s overnight, but don’t be surprised if you find yourself at Crisler Arena cheering on this team in your brand new Adidas hoodie.

Odds to Win the NCAA Championship

College basketball gets going this week.  Here's the future odds to win the title:

UNC           3/1

Duke          8/1

Florida      12/1

Louisville  12/1

Tennessee  12/1

UConn        14/1

Ohio State 15/1

UCLA          15/1

Texas           15/1

Notre Dame 20/1

Pitt               20/1

Purdue         20/1

Mich St        30/1

Villanova     30/1

Wisconsin    40/1

Illinois          100/1

Michigan    100/1

Indiana         500/1

WCBN College Picks Standings after Week 10

Here's where we stand:

1 Stu (22-12-1)- 33 pts

2 Rob (24-21-1)- 27 pts

3 JK (19-15-1)- 23 pts

4 Rushi (19-17-1)- 22 pts

5 Wiggles (14-15-1)- 13 pts

6 Seid (17-22-1)- 12 pts

7 Tobin (15-19-1)- 11 pts

8 Bill (9-10-1)- 8 pts

9 Jeremy (14-21)- 7 pts

------------------------------

Christian (4-1)- 7 pts

Nick (3-2)- 4 pts

Andrew (6-9)- 3 pts

Matt (4-6)- 2 pts

Kevin (2-3)- 1 pt

Mike (1-4)- negative 2 pts

World Series and a Happy Halloween

  First things first:  Congrats are in order to Rob, our good friend and Sports Director at WCBN.  His Phillies took home the World Series, their first since 1980 and the city's first major chmapionship of any kind since 1983.  It was a weird series with the delay in Game 5, but I actually think that made people tune in and added a wrinkle to this series that no other before it had.  Each game was entertaining (with Game 4 being the only exception) so I was pleased, even though I'll admit I was parying for a Manny vs. Red Sox Nation championship bout. 

As for "the Bet," which was discussed last week on the Blog, I will reveal Rob's new task that will be the alternative to the Dalembert mohawk proposed back in May (special thanks to Stu for helping me out on this one).  Tune in to Game of the Week this Friday (or check the blog after the show) to find out what our Sports Director is in for!

Last point of business:  Michigan Basketball starts in exactly 1 week!!!  However, the AA News reported today (via MLive) that freshman Center Ben Cronin is looking at a possible redshirt for his first season in college.  Cronin is reportedly having hip problems and can't

even complete full court drills.  This would make an already thin front court even thinner as Michigan would only have Gibson and Puls as players over 6'9 ( The prospect of 6'8 ft DeShawn Sims playing the 5 spot this season at some point speaks to where this team could be headed.  Their offense would consist of all five players lined up around the three point arc, with Sims sometimes sneaking inside to hit a 15ft

 jumper). 

Tune into WCBN for all home games this season and look for highlights here on the Blog.

Shafer's improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 at WMU: My Apologies to Scott Shafer...for now

So I just put a post up pretty much ripping our defensive schemes to shreds. And for the normal football fan's eye, like mine, they have appeared to be terrible. The rushing two or 3 guys on third down, what has looked like zone coverage due to some terrible safeties, and terrible giving up of big plays has made Shafer the main spot of criticism for me this year on the staff.
But I am not an expert on football schemes right now and will readily admit that. Having just read Brian on mgoblog and GSimmons, a football coach's analysis of Michigan's defense in the Michigan State game, my opinion of Scott Shafer is not as bad as it has been.

While it appears Michigan gets burned on zone coverage alot, they did actually play alot of man coverage in the State game. Simmons also pointed out that they are blitzing a good amount as well. After reading the breakdowns though, it seems to me that I underestimated the importance of at least having one great linebacker and safety on the team. The linebackers and safeties were responsible for all of the big plays given up in that game and much of the season. Thompson, Ezeh, and Mouton are not good right now. Ezeh, I believe, does have potential, but he's still young. Thompson and Mouton are just not good. Having a weak, slow to react linebacking crew has left holes at the line for opponents in the running game and has left the middle of the field open on many pass plays with terrible reads and reactions on the field.

I now think even Shafer's schemes might have been a more dramatic shift than fans might recognize. While he talks simple saying they are an "attack-react" defense as opposed to a "read-react" maybe that is a big time change from what these guys were used to. That could explain the poor angles, mis-reads, and late reads in coverage and against the run. This made me look back at Shafer's job at Western Michigan, the only place he's been for multiple years as a coordinator.

In 2005, Shafer's first season, Shafer's defense gave up a lot of points. Shafer's first year Bronco's gave up 29.8 points per game, eerily close to this year's 28.8. This year's team has already eclipsed that team's sack total of 17 by having 19 sacks, and Michigan has 9 INT's to that team's 15 on the year. So, the numbers are very similar to that other first year for Shafer. That defense was not very good and ended up losing their top tackler for the next season.

But the improvement from year one to year two for Shafer's defense was astounding. Despite losing that top tackler, the 2006 Broncos gave up just 19 points per game and led the nation in sacks jumping from 17 to 46 in one year, and going from 15 interceptions to 24. That team also was 6th in the country in run defense surrendering only 76 yards per game, and 11th in the country in total defense. They were 105th in total defense the year before; worse than this year's Michigan squad. To turn around that much in one year, suggests to me that maybe Shafer's schemes and mentality just take a while to get used to.

The one thing Shafer seems to need for success, is a great (do everything) linebacker. Shafer had one in Ameer Ismail at Western, who put up an absolutely mindboggling stat line of 90 tackles, 25.5 TFL's, 17 SACKS, 2 Ints, 2 recovered fumbles, and a forced fumble. Michigan is currently lacking a linebacker who can put up anywhere near those numbers. Ezeh can be good, but is definitely taking his good sweet time in developing and is still slow to react. But if Michigan gets any linebacker to step it up next season, maybe one of the freshman like Fitzgerald, Michigan could see a dramatic improvement in year two with Shafer.

But the fact remains for this season that Michigan is stuck in a scheme that takes some getting used to and quite frankly has safeties and linebackers who are not good. Coming into the year I thought Michigan could mitigate their lack of good safeties and linebackers by blitzing and using their talented corners in press coverage. I vastly oversimplified the weaknesses on the defense and oversimplified what could be done to mitigate those weaknesses.

I still believe that, for this season, Shafer and company could have done a better job covering up the weaknesses of this team by putting more pressure on the QB's and not running those 3 man rushes and fronts so much. This defense is more talented than the numbers indicate this season.

But if Shafer is installing a defense that will be anything like Western Michigan's was in 2006, I will most certainly be patient.

Scott Shafer, I owe you and everyone else who has heard what I have said about you an apology. You need another year or two, just like everyone else on this staff, before a judgement is made. And while this year looks terrible, hopefully the team can develop or recruit some linebackers and safeties to help out next year.

Jelani Jenkins? Do you want to put up numbers like Ismail did for Shafer? I suggest you come to Michigan and you will be rewarded.

Go Blue!

Game 9: Is the season over yet?

The fact that the Michigan defense made Brian Hoyer look like Tom Brady, and the offensive line made State's D-line look like the old Steelers, I finally cannot look for positives in this year's team (at least for a week). Michigan can't block, can't run, can't pass, can't stop the run, can't stop the pass, can't avoid turnovers, and for the last five weeks can't win.

And while some of the coaches want to blame the players, whose execution should be better, the blame goes all around. We've watched weeks go by with continual 3 man rushes on third down, zone coverages, three safeties (the worst players on the D) in at the same time, predictability on an offense that needs to be able to outsmart opponents since they have a complete dearth of talent and experience, without any changes. Scott Shafer still repeatedly uses the three man rush on third down AND three man fronts on running downs though they have repeatedly ended up with the defense staring at the back of the guy toting the ball downfield. That is a coaching error. We have seen Harrison, Stewart, and Brown, 3 huge liabilites at safety on the field at the same time instead of mixing up the nickel passage by putting Cissoko in for some dare i say press coverage. That is a coaching error. On the offense, it's mainly on the players and a terrible offensive line that limits your options, but still we have seen predictability and a bad case of going to the same play 10 too many times to where defenses know exactly what's coming. That's on the coaches.

I know the players are the least talented and least experienced group that Michigan has had in a while, but for the coaches, especially McGee who came out and said "Threet was erratic like he always is," to blame just the execution is flat out WRONG. Shafer and the defense have a very good D-line to work with, but for some reason has chosen to only play 3 of them time and time again meaning you have to take out one of your better players and replace them with one of your worst in a safety or outside linebacker. The defense has had success when you play a four man front and pressure the opposition and has gotten burned constantly with a three man front! It doesn't take a genius to figure out to stop using the damn 3 man front so much, a baby could do it! It certainly shouldn't be hard for a guy who coached a defense that led the nation in sacks and interceptions a few years ago! And back to McGee, what do you expect from a first year starting quarterback who is force to throw when there is no threat of a running game. Two of his interceptions came after Michigan State took the lead and took all of the momentum in the fourth quarter. The kid did not play well, but he didn't do bad if you take everything into consideration including the coaches.

I still love the coaching staff, don't get me wrong, but at this point it is not just the players not executing this season. The staff also has not made adjustments even on the defensive side of the ball which is where their is enough experience and talent to have success. Yes it would help if you had a left tackle who doesn't whiff on blocks repeatedly, yes it would help if you had a quarterback wise beyond his years, yes it would help if you had safeties who were not constantly out of position. But you found that out a few weeks into the season as coaches and have made no apparent adjustments to mitigate those things. The reason Michigan is 2-6 is a combination of the players not executing and the coaches not making simple adjustments. In my mind though, nobody should throw these players under the bus simply because they have given a greater effort game in and game out than I have seen from some of the more talented teams Michigan has had in the past. The simple fact is, the players just are not that good at this point. Fans need to accept that for the rest of the season. Their suckiness is out of their control in a short time span like the weeks of a season, at least they're trying.

Sorry about that, just wanted to clear my rambling thoughts for a moment, but there is some good news for the week ahead. Don't worry, I'm not trying to say there is good news for anything related to Michigan's play, I've currently given that up. But, Purdue comes in at 2-6 too and might be one of the few teams that has looked as bad or worse in the last 4 weeks. Purdue is on a 5 game slide since losing to ND, and the team is in complete disarray.

Purdue Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Curtis Painter, the guy who threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season with 29 TDs to 12 INTs, has thrown 6 TDs to 10 INTs this season. Oh yeah, and he could be out for the game on Saturday. Purdue is without their backup QB too who is injured meaning third string RS Fr. Justin Siller might get the nod at QB. At first I thought this would be great news. Then I found out Siller was playing some running back a few weeks ago and is mainly a running QB. While this still should be good news since he hasn't thrown for a few weeks, I'm still scared since the defense has not been able to stop anyone and a mobile QB could be more problems. Still, even with their quarterbacks, the last four weeks Purdue's offense has been very sporadic and unproductive, with the one week they got over 300 yards of offense and double digit points they turned the ball over five times. For a team that almost beat Oregon earlier this year and had some high hopes, this is a terrible terrible collapse. But good for Michigan.
Purdue is 97th in the country in rushing offense, and for being a passing team they are a terrible 108th in the nation in passing efficiency and 93rd in scoring offense. Michigan's pass defense has been terrible though at 101st in the nation so if Painter is healthy, this would be a great opportunity for him to get back on track. Michigan is 86th in scoring defense and has shown that they can make even Brian Hoyer look like a O'Brien award contender. Unfortunately, despite how bad Purdue has been, I can't give Michigan's D an edge since Shafer has been so dumb and the D is coming off a horrendous performance.

Advantage: Purdue

Michigan Offense vs. Purdue Defense

The last time I thought Michigan was going against a pathetic defense to the point of giving Michigan the advantage, Toledo happened. I will not give Michigan an advantage on offense for the rest of the season no matter how bad Purdue's defense is because the offense is way to inconsistent. Michigan is 111th in total offense and 102nd in scoring offense. So what if Purdue can't stop the run, Michigan hasn't proven they can run it. So what if Purdue is terrible at the pass rush, Michigan can't block.

Advantage: Purdue

Special Teams

Zoltan and Michigan have a NET punting average of over 42 yards (#1 in the nation) while Purdue has a NET punting average of 31 yards (110th in the nation). With one offense that has not been good all season, and one that is disintegrating into shambles, this could decide the game and kill Purdue as Michigan, barring horrendous turnovers, should get some good field position.

Kicking is a push as Purdue's two kickers are 10-18 on the year and Lopata has been struggling.

Neither team is good at returning.

Hooray that means it comes down to Zoltan!

Advantage: Michigan

If Michigan does not beat Purdue, 2-10 is a clear possibility. Purdue is one of the few teams that, right now (injuries and collapse), is worse than Michigan. And this game is important too. Recruits are starting to get turned off by the lack of wins as Michigan had a big recruiting weekend last week expecting some commitments after the visits, and got zero. Four guys have decommitted a couple are shaky and while a 2 win season wouldn't drop this top ten class out of the top 20, it is probably the difference between getting a couple more big time prospects vs. settling for some lower tier guys. Plus, if Michigan loses, the fantasy of a bowl game will even be shot and the guys won't have much to play for the rest of the year.

I'm going back to not predicting simply because I have no idea what Michigan team will come out or what Purdue team will come out. Michigan better win though...seriously.

Worst game ever.

Be sure to tune in on the sportstream from WCBN.org at noon on Saturday. Rob and Jeremy will have the call live from West Lafayette.

Go Blue! Please win.

WCBN College Picks Standings after Week 9

Congrats to Rushi and Seid with 3-2 weeks.  Here's where we stand:

Stu (20-9-1)- 32 pts

JK (17-12-1)- 22 pts

Rob (20-19-1)- 21 pts

Rushi (16-15-1)- 18 pts

Wiggles (14-15-1)- 13 pts

Seid (17-22-1)- 12 pts

Tobin (13-16-1)- 10 pts

Bill (8-6-1)- 10 pts

Jeremy (13-17)- 9 pts

--------------------------------------------

Christian (4-1)- 7 pts

Nick (3-2)- 4 pts

Andrew (4-6)- 2 pts

Kevin (2-3)- 1 pt

Matt (1-4)- negative 2 pts

Mike (1-4)- negative 2 pts

Game 8: Michigan vs. Little Bro

Michigan State is not that good. I was very confused with all the hype they were getting prior before getting killed last weekend. They had played nobody going into that game last weekend yet were being talked about like they had done something to prove themselves. Sparty has been outgained in every game since the Indiana game (and in that one they still gave up 400 yards). First up was a struggling Iowa team at the time (coming in averaging 10 points a game), but Shonn Greene completely outclassed Javon Ringer and if it wasn't for three first half turnovers, two of which were deep inside Michigan State territory, Iowa would have handily beat State. Up next was Northwestern who also committed two early turnovers that lead to Sparty scoring on both to help take a 17-0 lead. Northwestern outplayed MSU the rest of the game, though, outgaining State 459-297. Take note, Northwestern runs a spread where they like to run their not so fast white quarterback (Bacher). Then came last week's game, which I was not shocked to see. An O-State offense, seriously struggling to get in any kind of rhythm, found a Spartan D that was just right to help get the ball rolling. 216 rushing yards later, while holding Ringer to just 67 yards and outgaining Sparty 332-240, MSU finally showed their true colors with a 45-7 drubbing at home.

Let me repeat, State is not that good. But then again neither is Michigan. But this game and Purdue remain the only two I am confident about for the rest of the season.

The reason? State's offense is very similar to the old-fashioned Wisconsin offense which Michigan shut down, and State's defense is a worse version of the Wisconsin defense when it comes to defending the spread. The last two games for State were against spread offenses and we all saw what happened against the Buckeyes, and they did get ridiculously outgained against NW as mentioned above. If Threet is healthy enough to play the whole game Saturday, Michigan's offense finally showed they can move with a healthy Threet in last week's first half. There was something there, because Penn State has a legit run defense and Michigan was successfully running right at them for the entire first quarter and some of the first half. For Michigan to have their first running success against a top 3 team at Penn State is a very good sign. Granted, if Threet goes down, it seems Michigan has no shot at moving a nerf ball down the field, but if he stays healthy, State cannot stop the spread and Michigan could have some big time success for the first time all year.

State has relied on not turning the ball over this season, and on capitalizing on opponent mistakes. Despite getting outgained in both the Iowa and Northwestern games, Iowa coughed the ball up twice inside the redzone and NW threw two early picks which put State in very good field position to score (and they did). In the Iowa game, State only had one turnover to Iowa's three which was the difference in the game, and against Northwestern, State did not have any miscues while NW had 3, again the difference in the game.

Last weekend, State turned it over 5 times leading to the madness that would ensue. With Hoyer banged up, as much as State fans want to hate on him, he has done a decent job this year of not throwing interceptions. A freshman in Kirk Cousins or a banged up Hoyer, may not have the same fortune.

State Offense vs. Michigan Defense

State's offense is, simply put, #23 Javon Ringer running behind a fairly veteran O-line. Other than that, uh...Bri..uhh..Hoy...uhh NOTHING. Yes I did say State fans shouldn't hate on Hoyer too much, but, let me be real this time, hate on. He has completed UNDER 50% of his passes this season so MSU has NO passing attack. They hardly ever spread the field so the speed of Mark Dell (#2) has been vastly underused this season with him averaging around 60 yards a game and only scoring twice on the year. Freshman #3 B.J. Cunningham and Junior #25 Blair White have turned into the main threats in the passing game. Neither are averaging over 45 yards a game this season and neither has scored. Wide Receivers have not done anything this season for State (probably b/c Hoyer can't seem to get the ball to them). State does like to go to the tight end though and they have a decent one in sophomore #83 Charlie Gantt. He has three of the passing unit's 7 TD's this season. Yes, State only has 7 passing TD's on the SEASON (through 8 games). They will be running to Ringer and hoping not to get in a third and long all game.

State has a very strong right side of the line with 5th yr. Sr. Roland Martin at Guard (330 pounds) and 5th yr. Sr. Jesse Miller at tackle (6'6" 318). There is no question they favor that side. Michigan, and Shafer, will hopefully actually put 8 in the box here and run/zone blitz the safeties and outside backers often in this game to come help out the D-line. There is no reason Shafer and the D should play any nickel this week or sit back. State has no passing game so they need to attack...come on Shafer. I think they will because nobody in their right mind would be too worried about the passing attack of State. In third down passing situations though, Michigan will have to mix up their blitzes though and still try to attack the right side of State's line even if it is stronger. Against Illinois, Shafer and the D thought they would take advantage of a weaker Illini right side, which is good at first. But Illinois caught on quickly and, remember all those screens that went for big yardage. All were to the left side, and Shafer and the D for some reason continued to only bring pressure on the right. Opponents are not dumb so mix it up.

Michigan should have success though against State's Wisconsin style, one-dimensional offense. If they don't have success Michigan might not win another game this season.

Advantage: Michigan

Michigan Offense vs. State Defense

Please be healthy enough to play the whole game Threet...please. The truth came out and Threet has gotten shot up with cortisone before both the Toledo and Penn State games, because he has been injured for a while. Hopefully he is near healthy because Michigan finally was having some great success in the first half against Penn State with Threet running the show and Minor in the backfield. The entire O-line, except for Ortmann, seems to be improving now and looked their best in that first half vs. Penn State. Ortmann seems to be getting worse for whatever reason. Regardless, if Threet is healthy, and Minor again holds onto the football, I think we might be able to see Michigan's first close to complete four-quarter game offensively against a State team that cannot defend the spread. A complete game for Michigan would probably mean moving the ball for a few first downs every drive and having about 4 touchdown drives with a field goal maybe sprinkled in. A few things would need to happen for this to be possible.

1. Threet has to be healthy

2. Michigan cannot turn the ball over more than twice.

3. The coaching staff has to keep mixing things up throughout the game and stop letting defenses catch on after running the same plays over and over.

If those happen or come close to happening, I think we could see a Michigan offense that looks like a legitimate college offense for the first time this season.

Michigan State's defense does not impress much at all. Junior DE #58 Trevor Anderson is their only real pass rush threat on the line with 5 sacks on the year. I'll be concerned anytime he gets matched up with Ortmann. In passing situations with Ortmann in the game, I'd like to see Minor or Moundros back there on the left side of Threet to pass protect.

State will bring their linebackers up alot too especially on zone/run blitzes. Sophomore #53 Greg Jones on the outside and Junior #55 Adam Decker in the middle will be the ones who mainly come up. Overall, though, the linebacking crew of Jones, Decker, and #43 Sophomore Eric Gordon, reminds me alot of Michigan's linebacking corps this year. That bodes well for Michigan's offense who should look for Koger often or one of the slot receivers who ends up getting in a favorable mismatch with those guys. They will miss alot of tackles so if Michigan just executes and mixes up their play calling...

State's secondary is certainly their best unit. Their safeties in SS senior #21 Otis Wiley and junior #33 Dan Fortener are having pretty good seasons in coverage, especially Wiley who has 4 picks and 7 PBU. #37 Ross Weaver is an ok corner and #29 Rucker, #5 Fr. Johnny Adams and #9 Jeremy Ware should all see some time. They are bound to look bad though as State will probably sit back in the zone. The one thing that scares me, however, is those balls that Threet just floats in. He has not shown any propensity to throw the ball hard and if he floats any up in the vicinity of Wiley, there is a good chance Wiley will find it. Threet will have to make very good decisions as to when it is safe to float the ball into the receiver.

If Michigan spreads the field though, with a healthy Threet and a non-fumbling Minor, they should have some success running the ball against a not so good State defense who also cannot stop the spread. If the running game gets going with Minor and Threet out of the shotgun, they hopefully will not have to look down the field too much with Threet's elbow and floating balls. I do think Michigan will do well, but there is no way I can give them the edge after seeing just one half of solid execution. State has also seemed to take advantage of nearly every mistake the opposing offense makes. Michigan will need to avoid the stupid mistakes that have plagued them all year.

Advantage: State

Special Teams:

Brett Swenson has been a very good kicker for Sparty so far this season making 15 straight after missing the first one of the season putting him at 15-16 on the year. Aaron Bates has been a pretty good punter too averaging near 42 yards a kick, but that unit has given up two blocked punts this season so hopefully Michigan brings the pressure since they've been close a couple of times this year. Todd Boleski has been good on kickoffs with opponents averaging a start at their own 25 yard line.

Otis Wiley has returned punts this season pretty well returning 16 for an average of 12 yards a return and one big one of 78 yards. Ringer has returned kicks and has averaged an average 20 yards a return. Nobody seems to be tough here except for Wiley so Zoltan will have to continue to do a great job of kicking away from the returner.

Michigan's return game is just...I hope they find an answer, but if McGuffie is going to fumble it, I don't know who will hang on. I don't know what to expect here so it'll probably be bad again.

Lopata still scares me and is not very consistent but Zoltan is doing great. I now do believe he has worked on how to put that forward spin on the ball to get good bounces and he continues to get better each game.

Advantage: State

All I want to say is Mark Dantonio could have a case of trying way too hard to win this game. First of all, he keeps saying something like "it's not over until it's over" which nobody knows what it means because last year's game certainly is over. Secondly, for a coach to defend his school against comments made by a player by insulting the player's God-given height is completely classless as is MSU and he needs to learn how to take the high road. Thirdly, Rodriguez has played him twice and owned him in both games 38-0 and 42-24.

Brandon Graham came out and pretty much guaranteed a win for Michigan. While I don't agree with this because he is not Mike Hart and State is still better than Notre Dame was a year ago, I am happy to see the players still have confidence after what they've gone through this year. That defense knows that State is one of the few offenses on the schedule that play right into their strengths. Michigan should be able to shut down State as long as they stop sitting back in that stupid zone. There is no reason to defend the pass in this game so Michigan should have 8 in the box often.


I think State is going to come out overprepared (burnt out from the prep and pressure Dantonio puts on them for this game), overhyped, and will again struggle against a spread if Threet plays no matter how bad Michigan is.

Prediction: Michigan 26 MSU 17

This is, again, one of the only two games I am confident about the rest of the way due to State's style of play.

Be sure to tune into the game LIVE on the Sports Stream at 3:30 PM Saturday. By going to wcbn.org and clicking on the link that says Sports Stream.

Hopefully we can finally shut Dantonio up, but even if Michigan does win it probably still "won't be over." Win or lose, State is still going to be little Bro b/c they emulate us in every way including trying to be like big Bro and have football players beat up hockey players.

Sparty Can't Read Can't Write

Go Blue!

Football Player Assaults Hockey Team member... at MSU

In a story that seems all too familiar, MSU's AJ Sturges was released from the hospital last night after an altercation involving him, his teammates, and allegedlly members of the MSU football team this past weekend.  The Police Department has told the media that one or two players could face possible felony charges.   The link is below: 

Talk about your Deja Vu episodes:

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081022/SPORTS0203/810220323/1004/SPORTS

Doesn't this seem a little familiar?  I mean, talk about irony.  This same exact situation happens a week ago to the day at U of M with Steve Kampfer.  And now, a week before the MSU/U of M game in football, they do the exact same thing at MSU.  It shocks me that MSU's Coach Rick Cromley didn't warn his players to stay out of trouble after what was reported about the Kampfer incident.  Even though both teams should know better by this point in the season, the lack of restraint they showed is alarming (esp. since the U of M incident isn't even two weeks old).

Some people just don't learn from the mistakes of others...

4 More Wins...Please!!!

With a Phils-Rays World Series days away, Philadelphia's craving for a sports championship has never been greater.  If you don't believe me, just look at some of the youtube videos from Broad Street after Game 5 of the NLCS.  It's been a quarter century long wait since the Sixers title in '83.  My mind goes back to close calls (and have there been many) in recent Philadelphia sports history.  Let's revisit.

2005- Super Bowl XXXIX: Eagles vs Pats 

The one and only year that McNabb and TO worked out.  Still, the season had its drama.  From TO's late-season injury that caused him to miss the playoffs 'til the Super Bowl to McNabb's "sickness" on the final drive of the big game.  Despite an early 7-0 lead, the Birds fell 3 pts shy of a championship in Jacksonville, 24-21.

2001- NBA Finals: Sixers vs Lakers

With the best record in the NBA at the All Star Game, the Sixers traded for Dikembe

 Mutumbo.  I can still clearly remember being in the stands for the final few seconds of Game 7 of the Conference Finals against the Bucks.  Starting PF Tyrone Hill stood on the table at press row and waved a rally towel around for 10-plus minutes.  The Kobe-Shaq Lakers were the

overwhelming favorites in the Finals, not having lost a single game in the postseason.  AI had a memorable Game 1, typified by his OT three-pointer against Tyronne Lue. Despite the Sixers keeping it close in Games 2 and 3, LA took the title in 5.

1997- Stanley Cup Finals: Flyers vs Red Wings

The so-called 'Legion of Doom' of Lindros, LeClair and Renberg led the Flyers to the precipice of a championship.  I attended Game 1 at the Spectrum, remembered most for a Sergei Federov goal from outside the blue line on goaltender Ron Hextall.  At least it was quick and easy, a Red Wings sweep.

1993- World Series: Phillies vs Blue Jays

Philadelphia's most beloved team in the last 25 years was known for their care-free attitude.  A wild team included Dykstra, Daulton, Schilling, Kruk and of course Mitch 'Wild Thing' Williams.  I went to Game 1 of the NLCS against the Braves, a game that saw Phillies 3B Kim Batiste commit a crucial error early in the game, before delivering the game-winning hit in extra innings.  In the fall classic, Schilling won 2 games.  Yet, Mitch Williams blew the lead in Game 4 and Game 6, where he gave up the memorable HR to... you know who.

Now its 2008 and 25 years have come and gone since a championship.  Wouldn't it be ironic

that the one major Philadelphia sports team that has been the model for futility, the first franchise to 10,000 losses, a team that failed to sign JD Drew, traded away Bobby Abreu for nothing, a team whose biggest star players for a decade were Robert Person, Kevin Sefcik, Kevin Stocker, Kevin Jordan, Jose Mesa, Ricky Bottalico, Greg Jeffries and Doug Glanville would be the one to break the curse and win a championship first?  Only in Sports.

LETS GO PHILS!!!

WCBN College Picks Standings after Week 8

Congrats to Wiggles with a 3-2 week. Here's where we stand:

Stu           (20-9-1)- 32 pts

JK            (17-12-1)- 22 pts

Rob          (20-19-1)- 21 pts 

Rushi       (13-13-1)- 14 pts

Wiggles   (14-15-1)- 13 pts

Tobin       (12-12-1)- 12 pts

Seid          (14-20-1)- 8 pts

Jeremy    (11-14)- 8 pts

--------------------------

Bill           (6-3-1)- 9 pts

Christian (4-1)- 7 pts

Nick         (3-2)- 4 pts

Kevin       (2-3)- 1 pt

Andrew   (2-3)- 1 pt

Matt        (1-4)- negative 2 pts

Mike        (1-4)- negative 2 pts