Michigan Preview 2008: Part 9-Top 10 Reasons Michigan will be TERRIBLE in 2008

I'm not very big on making predictions, especially this season when really everything is a big question mark. You can find predicitions anywhere else and can hear them on our first show of the year Friday from 7-10 PM on 88.3 WCBN or WCBN.org. Generally the consensus has been 7-5 or 8-4 with some going well below that and predicting a 2007 NDesque year, and nobody seeming to go higher than 8-4. The next two days I'll give 10 reasons Michigan will be like ND in '07, and then 10 reasons Michigan will be decent to good and at least reach that 8 win plateau if not higher. I'm going to start with the bad news first and the top 10 reasons Michigan will stink this seasons. Alot of this is me playing the devil's advocate so don't bite my head off for saying some stuff. These are just the potential reasons Michigan will have the worst year ever and end their amazing bowl streak. Brace yourselves, after I finished writing this I was even getting depressed. I countdown from 10 to 1.

Top 10 Reasons Michigan Football will stink in 2008

10. Rich Rod’s offense won’t work in the Big Ten
I don’t buy into the whole offense not working in the Big Ten thing, but it’s something people are talking about. Rodriguez has only played one Big Ten team throughout his career. It so happens that team is the prototypical smashmouth run every play, find the biggest guys we can to be on the line team, Wisconsin. Rodriguez and WVU had a home and home with Wisconsin in Rodriguez’s second and third year. They lost both of them scoring only 17 points in each. Still, this was in Rodriguez’s second and third year, and in the third year the team had lost a boatload of talent. But that’s the position Michigan is in right now with no quarterback, losing their all-time leading rusher, and losing practically the whole O-line. This could be ugly.

9. Family Values
Hey Justin. How’s it going down there? The few insiders I’ve talked to at O-State say you may never get to start down there because of all the talent. Haha weird. Hope the snow-plow business does well this winter. Wouldn’t want to have to go to a practice and miss a big snow, right? Just like A.I. said, “We talkin’ ‘bout practice.” Yeah well at least you don’t have to get yelled at by Rodriguez anymore. He’s such an insensitive jerk and he must have caused you a lot of irreparable emotional damage. Doesn’t he know you have feelings too? I hope you’re doing better. And if Tressel does yell at you just come to me. Shh Shh little baby, don’t cry don’t cry. Everything will be ok.

8. Scott Shafer is too aggressive
While Shafer’s scheme excites many, there is a fear, a slight fear that has been creeping into my mind, that maybe he will be too aggressive. It seems like his blitz all the time policy is a big hit or miss thing. If it clicks, and everyone gets in the back field quick enough, it will be great and one of the top units in the nation. But there will be times when the defense blitzes, if they do it too much, and a handoff on a draw later all 11 defenders will be staring at the back of the opposing running backs jersey as he walks into the endzone. I don’t think this will be the case and I do believe Shafer’s defense will be great. But it’s something to watch for IMO.

7. Morgan Trent return to ’06 form
So Morgan Trent played pretty well last year. Not buying it? He had a decent year, didn’t make a whole lot of plays though. Maybe last year was just an aberration and we will watch get torched a ton this year. I wouldn’t count on it, as I think he will play great, but if he gets burned early it might be tough for him to get it out of his psyche. Again should be great, and I don’t think this is a problem, but I’m sure plenty of fans are worried.

6. Overrated D
If Trent does play like that, it will be one example of why the defense is overrated. Everyone is expecting big big things from this experienced defense that have to live through a summer with Mike Barwis, but maybe there is too much expected from them. They do need to be great for this team to win, but maybe they just simply aren’t that great. Will Johnson was overrated and played weak last season; the outside linebackers have no experience and are a question mark; Obi Ezeh started and played well, but wasn’t outstanding; fans’ memories of Stevie Brown are him getting torched against App. State; Brandon Harrison is a starting safety and fans have watched him get torched on too many occasions; Morgan Trent (see #7); and if the defense is blitzing all the time, who’s going to stop the run when we can’t get to the back in the backfield. Get the picture? Maybe the defense has too much expected from them. They weren’t very good against the run last year ranking 58th in the country in rush defense. There is a chance for disappointment here.

5. Simply lost too much offensive talent
Michigan lost the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft in tackle Jake Long. And, oh yeah, they lost 3 other O-line starters and a couple guys that provided depth. Lost the all-time leading passer in Michigan history in Chad Henne, and his heir apparent, Ryan Mallett. Lost Michigan’s all-time leading rusher in Mike Hart; and the big Blue lost their top two wide receivers, both of whom could have returned for another year. It would be tough, to impossible, for any team to succeed after that, let alone while undergoing a coaching transition. Not lookin’ too good.

4. Injuries
With the thin O-line, it was pretty clear that Michigan had to stay healthy at that spot. So much for that as a starter, Cory Zirbel, went down with a knee injury and is likely out for the season. His replacement, Mark Huyge, soon also decided to go down with an ankle injury and he is out for a few weeks at least. This line is seriously paper thin right now and if one more starter goes down, might as well throw that paper into the fire and watch it burn. This is looking scary. Please no more injuries.

3. O-line
Speaking of that O-line, even when healthy there is a combined 15 total starts of experience among those guys, 13 coming from one guy, Schilling. When starting a first year quarterback, you at least want to be able to say you have a solid offensive line that will make his life a little easier. Nope, sorry, this line could be just as big a liability as that walk-on, first year, 6’1” starting QB. There are some skill guys on the outside, but what does it matter if the QB doesn’t even have time to get him the ball. Oh yeah, and Michigan would like to run the ball too. How is any back supposed to run when the O-line collapses and lets the front seven into the backfield coming straight at him. OK it certainly won’t be that bad, but there are going to be some major difficulties running up the middle. Hopefully these guys gel together, but right now this O-line is one of the main reasons for Michigan to be dismal.

2. Quarterbacks
Oh the quarterbacks. Remember that time the four-star 6’6” quarterback who was almost handed the starting job found a way to lose out to the 6’1” walk-on who only has a spot on the team because his Dad used to coach here? Well, you can say that come Saturday, as all indications point to Sheridan being the starter. And having watched the bits of practice that I’ve seen Sheridan does seem better, not only because he’s a little mobile, but he actually seems to be a more accurate passer too. Regardless of who is playing, this will probably be ugly and there could be a couple of interceptions PER GAME. Yeah, it’s looking that bad. In Rodriguez’s first year at WVU, he used three quarterbacks, though one significantly more than the others, but the results were ugly, very ugly. How about a combined 9 touchdowns to 19 interceptions, for a grand whopping total of 1811 yards on 357 attempts and a completion percentage of 53%. Oh yeah, and the guy who played the most at quarterback was a returning starter and Senior who was a drop back guy and threw 13 TDs to just 8 INTs the year before. How will it be with a guy without any experience, both of whom are drop back passers? Don’t answer that question.

1. Rodriguez’s first year
Rodriguez’s first year’s have each been pretty bad. His first and only year at Salem as a 24 year old, Rodriguez was 2-8. His first year at NAIA Glenville State, a dismal 1-7-1. In his first year at West Virginia, he inherited a club that 7-5(3-4) the season before. He did not exactly lift that program up in year one going 3-8 and 1-6 in conference play. Sure he had great success after year one, but he’s in year one now. Please don’t let it be the same at Michigan. Unfortunately, it is a realistic possibility, especially if more injuries occur.


Now that I have thouroughly depressed you three days from game day, tomorrow I'll give 10 reasons why Michigan won't be so bad this year. It's always good to end things on a good note even if it'll be overly positive. I'm sick of talking about this and can't wait to watch them. As long as the above reasons don't all come true.

Michigan Preview 2008: Part 4-Offensive Line

Quick note: Terrence Robinson will be out at least for the opener and he’ll be out for a few weeks (small knee injury). And transitioning to offensive line, a HUGE LOSS as Cory Zirbel, starting RG, will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery and be out for a large part of the season if not the entire season. He was a projected starter and this is a huge loss for the O-line that has virtually no depth. Guard Mark Huyge is week-to-week and might be ready for Utah, but its doubtful.

Speaking of the O-line, it is the major question mark on this team other than the quarterback spot. With only one starter returning in Stephen Schilling, and, with Zirbel’s injury, only about 6 other offensive linemen with experience, this unit is inexperienced and absolutely cannot afford any more injuries. Having said that, the starting five, even without Zirbel, could be better than some think. The offense should involve a lot of quick 3-step drops where the quarterbacks get the ball to receivers or backs out in space. That should alleviate the role of the O-line. But there is no getting around an inexperienced O-line at times. At times, the quarterbacks are going to get banged up, the running backs will get stuffed. The offensive can find a way, however, to avoid that by getting the ball outside quickly. Here is the tentative depth chart, if you can call it that. I’m only going to go two deep, and I’ll still be guessing some there.

This is what it’s looking like for Utah, from LT to RT, if Huyge is injured:

Mark Ortmann-Tim McAvoy-David Molk-Dave Moosman-Stephen Schilling

Top back-ups: Perry Dorrestein (tackle or guard), John Ferrara (Guard), Rocko Khoury (Center or guard), Ricky Barnum (Guard), Dann O’Neill (Tackle who isn’t ready)

I think we are screwed with depth at tackle.

If Huyge is ready to go, move Moosman back to center, take Molk out, and insert Huyge as the starter at RG. Rodriguez has said that Ferrara (converted DT who never played O-line even in high school) will have a chance to compete for that starting job as well.

Starters:

#71 Mark Ortmann 6’7” 294 RSJr. Klein, TX (Klein)
Ortmann started two games at right tackle last year (EMU and Purdue). He also played in another four games. In 2006, he played in seven games mostly as a backup LT. So Ortmann has played some. Though he played tight end in high school, he was recruited mostly as a tackle and was a 3 star prospect by rivals. For this offense, one huge factor to note is that he ran a 4.9 40 yard dash in high school, pretty good speed for an O-lineman. I’m sure Lloyd and co. slowed him down, but enter Barwis and he is probably back at that 4.9 level. He is athletic and still weighs in the 290s, which plays right into what the coaching staff wants out of their O-lineman. This system might work out for him, I’m just confused as to why the inexperienced tackle is protecting the blind side while the only experienced guy (Schilling) is on the right. We’ll see.

#62 Tim McAvoy 6’6” 288 RSJr. Bloomington, IL (Bloomington)
McAvoy played in five games last season as a backup guard and made one start at RG (Northwestern). He was injured the remainder of the season (sat out games and then just banged up) so he actually might have started a few more games or at least been a key backup. He also played tight end in high school, but was recruited as a tackle by some, and an interior lineman by others. He was actually pretty highly regarded with Tom Lemming ranking him as the 20th best interior lineman in the country. Rivals gave him 3-stars looking at him as a tackle. SuperPrep Magazine named him an All-American on the O-line, maybe a stretch, but that’s what they thought. McAvoy also ran a 4.9 40 coming out of high school and I expect him to be around there for the same reason I think Ortmann will be running that speed. This system, which values athleticism, could also benefit McAvoy. I would not be surprised if this left side does very well as the season progresses, but that’s hard to project when they have never started. Both do have plenty of playing experience though so it might not be too bad.

#50 David Molk 6’2” 282 RSFr. Lemont, IL (Lemont Township)
Redshirted last year and has no playing experience which is scary since he is the projected starter for Utah. He was very highly regarded out of high school though. Scout.com gave him four stars and ranked him the 3rd best center in the country. Rivals named him the 5th best center in the country and gave him 3 stars. The one thing that concerns me with Molk is his size and strength. Hopefully Barwis has gotten him stronger because I keep picturing him snapping the ball and then a nose tackle getting under him and putting him straight on his back. I really hope I’m wrong and maybe his lack of height will help him get some leverage on guys coming at him. He is supposed to be good if not great at some point, but he was not supposed to start until the injuries and I don’t know if he is quite ready to yet. The coaches have said that there have been virtually no problems snapping the ball though which alleviates one concern.

#60 Dave Moosman 6’5” 292 RSJr. Libertyville, IL (Libertyville)
Moosman played three games last year, and four games two years ago, all as a reserve center. Not much experience, especially at guard. But the coaches have taught him guard especially with the injuries to Zirbel and Huyge, and the fact that Molk only can play center right now. Hopefully Huyge gets back and Moosman can move back to center, but for now he has to be RG. He was highly regarded out of high school. Rivals gave him four-stars projecting him at guard, and naming him the 11th best guard in the country. Tom Lemming ranked him the 7th best interior lineman in the nation. He came out a bit slower running the 40 in 5.2, but hopefully Barwis has worked with him. We will have to see, but I think he will be better at center when Huyge gets back.

#52 Stephen Schilling 6’5” 295 RSSo. Bellevue, WA (Bellevue)
Started 11 games at RT and moved to RG for 2 games when injuries struck the O-line (those two are when Ortmann filled in at RT). While people attack Schilling for getting blown up at times last year, let’s not forget, he was a RS freshman last year. Players improve, and with Barwis and co. I’m sure Schilling will too. He was voted second team freshman All-America by The Sporting News and is obviously the only returning starter on this O-line. He gives the right side more stability on the outside while the RG spot will probably remain questionable throughout the year IMO. Yes, Schilling was rated a five-star by BOTH rivals and scout. He will have to live up to the billing this year in order to keep that right side intact. I really think Schilling will have a great year. I wonder why they are keeping him on the right side though, and not moving him to the left to protect the blindside. Either the coaches have a lot of confidence in Ortmann or Schilling can only play the right. I hope it’s the former.

Backups:

#79 Perry Dorrestein 6’7” 308 RSSo. Plainfield, IL (Plainfield Central)
He played in four games last year as a back up tackle (2 at LT 2 at RT) and that is his experience since he redshirted his first year. He is a Carr regime tackle: big and slow, though I’m sure Barwis has tried to change that. Apparently it took a while for Dorrestein to get on board with the new staff, but he did, and hopefully he slimmed down a little and got a little faster. He will play a lot since he will be the backup for both tackle spots. Hopefully there are no injuries so he does not have to play extended time, but chances are there will be a game in which he will have to play extended minutes. He was a 3-star and the 43rd best tackle in the country three years ago, according to rivals.

#74 John Ferrara 6’4” 274 RSSo. Staten Island, NY (Monsigor Farrell)
His switch really shows how desperate this team is for some depth on the O-line. He has played DT and was going to rotate in there this season. He played tight-end in high school, absolutely no offensive line. He has been on the defensive line since he stepped onto campus. Now, as of earlier this week, he is on the O-line at guard. There is no experience or any other way to guage how he will be at OG. The coaches think he can compete to be a starter right now, which again, is a sign that this offensive line, well, isn’t too great right now. He is athletic and quick for a lineman. And maybe he plays mean? I don’t know, but the coaches see potential in him to start and I have to agree with them because they know more about what they want from O-linemen than anyone else. I count this as a Rodriguez recruit to the O-line so he could be alright. But no experience here, ever.

#63 Rocko Khoury 6’5” 280 Fr. Traverse City, MI (Traverse City West)
Khoury has been impressing the coaching staff at guard and particularly at center. At a press conference last week, Rodriguez specifically mentioned Khoury and Ricky Barnum as freshmen who will be on the two-deep for the O-line. Khoury was mainly recruited as a tackle and was a 3-star prospect by both rivals and scout. He played some D-line in high school and seems to be pretty athletic, which is probably why the coaches like him. He will rotate in there at times, and if Molk struggles at center while Huyge is out, Khoury might get a chance there early. This is really getting scary as we know that the third guy off the bench right now, will be a true freshman. But Khoury will certainly be good down the line, the question is how he will adjust being thrown into the mix right away. There will certainly be some growing pains.

#56 Ricky Barnum 6’2” 265 Fr. Lakeland, FL (Lake Gibson)
He was highly recruited, remember the wizard hat RichRod wore to get him from Florida? Barnum comes in as a four-star by rivals, scout, and ESPN. He was in the ESPN top 150. Scout named him the fourth best guard prospect while rivals named him the fifth best center. He will play guard, at least this year. He played tackle in high school, so perhaps he will get in there as well considering Dorrestein is the only experience backup at tackle, and then O’Neill has been said by many to not be ready yet. Barnum will play, most likely at guard, but if the team avoids injuries, hopefully he won’t get thrown into the fire too much. But he is certainly on the two-deep.

#78 Dann O’Neill 6’7” 295 Fr. Grand Haven, MI (Grand Haven)
O’Neill was the most anticipated offensive lineman in this freshman class with so going as far to say he is the next Jake Long. While I think that’s way too far of a stretch, he should be very good down the road. A four-star prospect by rivals and scout, and ranked 69th in the ESPN Top 150, O’Neill, a tackle, should be great. The only problem is, the coaches, and others I have talked to who have seen practice, say that O’Neill just is not ready yet. He has a great frame, but needs to work a little on his technique and grasping the scheme. Regardless, right now, with the injuries on the line, and the lack of depth at tackle, I think O’Neill will be on the two-deep and see some time. Hopefully he starts to understand the schemes better as the season goes on so he can fill in if needed. In an ideal world though, he would be redshirted. This season is not exactly what you would call ideal though.

Injured Players:

#75 Cory Zirbel 6’5” 292 RSJr. Murray, KY (Murray)
I won’t say much about him because it looks like he could be out for the year and it upsets me to think about injuries on the O-line. But he would have been the starter at RG. He’s played in 21 games in his career including all 13 last year along the offensive line. He was a four-star top-100 player out of high school and his talent and experience was sorely needed and it really sucks that he is injured. Hopefully he responds well to surgery and maybe, just maybe, we can get him back sometime in the second half of the year. Doubtful though.

#72 Mark Huyge 6’6” 292 RSFr. Wyoming, MI (Catholic Central)
He is “week-to-week” and there is still a chance that he is ready for Utah, but I doubt it. He should be back sometime early in the season though. He redshirted last year and has no experience. He was an average guy coming out of high school getting three stars from rivals and two stars from scout. Still, he impressed the coaches enough to initially fill into the starting right guard spot vacated by Zirbel. His return will be huge, regardless of whether he is very good or not, because he is the only guy who the coaches trust enough at guard, that will allow Moosman to move back to center taking young David Molk out of the starting lineup. The sooner he gets back the better. He played hockey and basketball so he must be athletic (hockey? Really?). That’s probably why the coaches like him. He will start at RG at some point during the year, unless Ferrara catches on fast.

Michigan needs to avoid any more injuries at the O-line or this will be a long year filled with watching freshman linemen getting bowled over, blown by, learning on the job, and getting the quarterbacks and running backs pounded. If you are a semi-religious Michigan fan, please pray for the health of these guys all year. I will be. Because if more guys get hurt, this could be that dreaded 4-8 season or even as bad as ND’s 3 win year last year. Hopefully the guys who are hurt return soon and those who are healthy stay healthy. There is enough talent among the starters to form a formidable Big Ten offensive line. There is virtually no depth here and that is scary thing. Please stay healthy O-line, PLEASE.

Current Grade: D+/C- This is not lower because I see talent in the starting five and see Huyge coming back. If he doesn’t or if one more starter gets injured, this is an F or D- though and I’ll be peeking through my fingers every time the offense takes the field. If they stay health though, they can be an average O-line IMO. They certainly won’t be great, and probably not good, but on the average/good borderline. Staying healthy is a tough task for O-lineman though, so we really just have to hope. PLEASE STAY HEALTHY.

Move to the more promising defense tomorrow! Thank God. We’ll start with the D-line.