Gotta Beat the Badgers to Get to March Madness

Like many Michigan basketball fans, I have begun to shuffle through different scenarios in my head regarding potential ways that the Michigan Wolverines can make it to March Madness. Before I get going, here's Michigan's remaining schedule for reference:

CURRENT RECORD: 16-10 (6-7 conf.)

02/16 (Tonight) @ Illiniois
02/19 @ Iowa
02/23 #10 Wisconsin
02/26 @ Minnesota
03/05 Michigan State

In the Big Ten, Michigan is currently ranked 6th.

Now, down to the nitty gritty:

Now, I'm not Joe Lunardi, but I do know a few things about how teams generally qualify for the the NCAA tournament. These things are:
- 20 wins is generally a must.
-Winning your conference tournament gets you an automatic bid.
-Strength of schedule helps.
-You need marquee wins.
- Joe Lunardi, the real guy for ESPN, is basically never wrong when it comes to predicting brackets.
- Joe Lunardi does not think that Michigan is currently a March Madness team.

This all taken into consideration, you will see that below I have plowed through a few realistic scenarios that could decide the season. In regards of Big Ten Tourney play, I have made the (dangerous) assumption that Michigan will win the games in which it will be the higher seed:

Scenario 1: Michigan wins the games that it will be favored in.
This means victories at Iowa and at home against Michigan State. It also means that Michigan will win one game in the Big Ten tournament, where they will likely face one of the two worst teams in the Big Ten.
Result: 19-14 OUT of March Madness

Scenario 2: Michigan wins every game except for the Wisconsin game.
While the idea of Michigan winning every game against non-ranked teams looks good on paper, when you dive into the numbers, the outcome is not as favorable as one would think. If Michigan won every game except for the Wisconsin game, they would be flirting with danger by not getting a marquee win and by capturing a seed in the Big Ten Tournament that would force them into a bye in the first round of the tournament, and then pit them against a 4-6 seed in the second round. A one and done in the Big Ten Tournament, therefore, would be very likely.
Result: 21-12 IN/OUT (With no marquee wins it depends on who they beat in the second round of the tourney... this is dicey) or 20-12 OUT

Scenario 3: Michigan beats the Badgers and wins two other games.
if Michigan beats the Badgers their tournament resume is greatly improved. By beating Wisconsin and 2 other teams (preferably Illinois, MSU, or Minnesota), Michigan would improve its record to 19-12 entering the Big Ten Tournament. Once again, Michigan would likely get a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tourney and would run into a 4-6 seed.
Result: 20-13 IN (good strength of schedule & Marquee win) or 19-13 OUT

Scenario 4: Michigan beats 2 0f MSU, ILLINOIS, MINNESOTA and beats Iowa.
If Michigan wins three out of their next five games, but does not beat Wisconsin, it will put them in a very tough spot. The Wolverines will improve their record to 19-12, but they will probably capture a 5 or 6 seed in the BTT, which, once again, will give them a bye and force them to play a tough 3 or 4 seed in round 2.
Result: 20-13 OUT (Unless their win in the tournament is against #3 seed likely to be Wisconsin) or 19-13 OUT


Since I realize the above scenarios are chaotic, let me summarize what they mean:
- If Michigan beats the Wisconsin Badgers in the regular season they greatly improve their chances of making the tournament, and could keep their tournament hopes alive by only winning 2 other games in the regular season.
- If Michigan does not beat the Wisconsin Badgers (but beats every other team) in the regular season they will put themselves in a position where they have 20 wins, but no marquee wins. In the second round of the tournament (after a first round bye), they may get a shot at a marquee win, but the standings indicate that it will probably be against Wisconsin.
- Michigan can put themselves in a really crappy scenario by getting a 5 or 6 seed in the tournament by beating 3 teams not named Wisconsin. Not only would the Wolverines only have 19 wins going into the tournament, but they would once again score a first round bye in the BTT, and, if they were extremely lucky, would get a crack at the 3 seed (probably Wisconsin). A 20th victory against a team like current 4 seed Illinois really wouldn't do the trick for getting Michigan in the big dance.

The wild card in all of this is the performance of the #11 Purdue Boilermakers. Michigan does not play Purdue, but there is a distinct possibility that if Michigan wins 3 or more regular season games from here on out , they will play, and have to beat, the Boilermakers in their first game (in the second round) of the BT tournament. Unless, of course, Michigan beats Wisconsin on February 23...

It's the most wonderful time of the year....

Below is my annual "Ode to March Madness." I've waited all year for tomorrow's viewing extravaganza, and it's finally here. And the fact that Michigan is in the tourney, and the fact our President is on ESPN filling out a bracket, makes this one of the tournaments I've been most excited about.

I'm interested to hear everyone's stories about how they've enjoyed the first day of the tourney. Leave them in the comments section.

Without further ado...

Tomorrow is the greatest weekday for sports viewing out of the entire year.

At noon, the NCAA tournament and its 64 team field will begin its frantic run for the national championship. It is arguably the greatest day to be a fan because for the next two days, college basketball games will be running for almost 12 hours, starting at noon and ending around 12:15am. Say "Good-bye" to soap operas, and "Hello" to Gus Johnson.

Some of my favorite memories from middle school and high school were on this day when the guys would sneak to the teachers lounge to catch part of the game at lunch time and then take 6 bathroom breaks per class period to keep checking the scores. My religion teacher probably thought I had the prostate of a sixty-eight year old man. This was obviously before the days of laptop computers, and the widely used strategy of college students who bring the computer to watch the games on-demand. Last year, I got to witness a great early round upset by Davidson while in "Media Effects" class, because of the on-demand program from CBS.

I'm not going to remember what was said that day in class a year from now, but I'll always remember what Steph Curry did for his team in that first game during his team's run to the Elite Eight.

We all enjoy March Madness. Even if people don't follow college basketball, they are still filling out a bracket or flipping a coin to decide on who they should pick. Watching the evening games with friends is one of the best things about all the coverage. It brings together people who you might not have seen since this time last year, but you still remain the best of friends because of The Tourney and your annual NCAA pool. So with that...

Let the Madness begin.

UM beats Huskies (again), Bruins Up Next

Tonight’s 76-56 Michigan win over the Northeastern Huskies sends the Wolverines to MSG next week in a match-up against UCLA and a possible finals match-up against Duke.  The margin of victory was big and Manny Harris took home tournament MVP honors.  Things were great for the Maize and Blue.  That said… I can’t believe Michigan won this game.  I kept looking up at the scoreboard just to make sure the score I had was correct because I could believe what I had in front of me.  Northeastern was ice cold (FG 29% for the game) and their go-to player Matt Janning decided to mail-in the first half.  This game could have easily gone a different direction had the Huskies not played so poorly.

 

But, that’s why they play the game.  Here’s more on tonight’s flattening of the Huskies:

 

Board Wars:  Michigan won the rebounding battle tonight by a 33-31 margin, but allowed 20 Offensive Rebounds in the game.  20 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS?!? If Tom Izzo was Michigan's coach, he would have taken a timeout just so he could beat Anthony Wright senseless with his white board for refusing to block-out. Michigan has not rebounded well this season and things seemed to have hit rock bottom in this category.  Harris led all Wolverines with 8 rebs, but Michigan struggled to secure the ball and gave up too many deflections and tips that went for easy buckets.  Give up 20 offensive boards at MSG in front of a national TV audience and Michigan can forget about the NCAA Tournament.

 

Lessons from LeBron:  Manny Harris was everywhere this week. He dropped 30 on Michigan Tech and comes back to put up 26 points, 10 rebs, and 8 assists on Northeastern…just to make sure you didn’t think he was one-dimensional.  Harris would have the triple double had it not been for a missed dunk and lay-up from Sims.

 

It looks like LeBron’s advice at summer camp has taken root.  

 

Harris is scary good, will only get better, and is benefiting from open lanes created by his teammates hitting their threes. He is driving to the hoop at will and can probably set another record for trips to the foul line this year. The only thing I worry about is whether or not they start to lean more than they should.  Harris has a tendency to be passive/defer in certain games, but a steady contribution from him will be what this team needs while the young guns (Novak and Douglass) get acclimated.

 

Microwave off the Bench:  DeShawn Sims had himself another great game, putting up 19 points to go along with 7 boards off the bench. He looked comfortable at the 5 spot, moving to the 4 at times, and seemed to do well in clogging the lane and altering a good number of NU’s put-back attempts.  If he remains on the bench to start, he’ll do exactly what Vinny “The Microwave” Johnson did for the Detroit Pistons in the Bad Boys era: Give them solid point production off the bench and make smart choices with the ball down the stretch. While he doesn’t need 19 pts a night, his presence on the boards needs to be felt in games like tonight where his front court teammates disappear on the glass.  Speaking of which…..

The Gibson ‘wagon has stalled: Zach Gibson faced his first legitimate post-up opponent in NU’s Ojougboh and was not up to the task.  Gibson was in foul trouble for much of the game, finishing with 4 points and 4 rebs in 15 minutes.  He took only two shots and really looked flustered trying to get open.  I’m not expecting him to be Kevin Love, but is 8 points and 7 boards a night too much too ask? I hope not. Otherwise the “Gibson Bandwagon” will be dismantled for parts.

 

The Crisler Crowd was decent for a 8pm Wednesday tip-off.  Listed attendance was at 6200 (the lower bowl was pretty crowded) with the Maize Rage just about full for the first time this year.  It would only take one win at MSG to see that attendance spike even higher when the Wolverines return from their road trip, even for a game vs. Norfolk State.  

 

It’ll be interesting to see the reaction Michigan receives from the national media in its first national appearance this year.  A good review is exactly what this team needs to plant the seed of a possible post-season bid for the Big Dance.  ESPN’s Joe Lundardi is giving the Big Ten five bids (at most) for the tournament, so it is crucial to get the post-season campaigning started in the next week.  That said….

 

Yes, We Can.

UM Basketball '08-09: Get Pumped! (No, seriously...be excited.)

The Michigan Men’s Basketball team will take the floor in their exhibition opener this Thursday against the Cardinals of Saginaw Valley State University (Side note: I have been to SVSU and their campus is literally the size of the Diag, or the distance from the Flagpole to the Grad. And that’s including their entire student housing complex, too. I’m not kidding. It’s that small.).  Now, things haven’t exactly been great for this program in the past few years.  Sure, they lost to Harvard and their former coach (Tommy Amaker) last season... Yeah, they lost to Duke by almost 40 points last year...OK, so the leading shot blocker in the Big Ten last year (Ekpe Udoh) decided to transfer to Baylor, the incoming recruiting class doesn’t have a Top 50 player, and their big foreign recruit wasn’t actually allowed to play in the NCAA.

….But you should still be excited for 4 big reasons which will have you watching and cheering (and maybe even buying tickets?!?!) by season’s end.

(And let’s get the obvious out of the way for the cynics out there: I am not going to cop-out and use the old “At least it’ll give us something to watch other than gut-wrenching Michigan Football.”  I’ve made my peace with this season. So should you).

The Big Ten is weak and there will be parity:  At Big Ten Media day, Purdue was voted the pre-season favorite with MSU and Wisconsin behind them.  While I do think there is something to be said for Matt Painter returning 5 starters, I just don’t see Purdue being all that great.  I think Robbie Hummel received the pre-season MVP because…well, I’m still trying to figure that out.  The guy wasn’t even voted MVP of his TEAM last year (that award went to Keaton Grant).  I think Purdue will be good, but there isn’t much that separates the top tier teams from each other. Throw in OSU and you have your legitimate top 4.  This leaves the rest of the Big Ten to fight it out.  I think Michigan (if they can get some key wins on the road) could sneak into the top 5. Three of the remaining teams (PSU, NU, and Iowa) don’t look like they have a shot, Indiana’s program is still trying to get out of “3-Ring Circus” mode, leaving Minn, Illinois, and Michigan to fight it out. I like the Wolverines in that case.

 

A Star Is Born: People have ripped UM for not having a star player with NBA-type talent since Jamal Crawford.  That ends this year with the emergence of Manny Harris.  The Detroit native averaged 16 points as a freshman and only looks to get better with a year’s experience in John Beilein’s system already under his belt.  If the Wolverines can get consistent contribution from behind the three-point line (look for newcomer Stu Douglass to prove his value here), that will spread the floor and “Manny Fresh” will average close to 20 points for the season.

 

If you give them free stuff, they hopefully might come:  The Men’s Basketball program has pulled out all the stops and are giving prizes to kids willing to buy tickets/attend games this season.  Prizes include tickets to the OSU football games, MDen gift cards, and even free books for the semester.  They are giving away just about everything but the keys to Rich Rodriguez’s car.  This (in addition to a winning record through the pre-season) will hopefully bring people to the games and create an arena atmosphere that goes along with a winning program.  If the Athletic Department can get 8,000 people in Crisler on a consistent basis, that will be good for at least 2 wins against one of the top four teams).

 

The Big House isn’t the only thing under construction:  Coach Beilein is building a program.  His players have not always been the most highly recruited, but they act as pieces to the puzzle that is their intricate offensive system.  Beilein is big on role guys, and the guys he brought in at WVU (guys like Kevin Pittsnogle and Mike Gansey, neither who made it big in the pros) were role players but were the reasons his 2005 team made it to the Elite Eight.  He has a track record that shows his ability to do great work with “adequate” talent.  A winning record will give him more than his fair crack at good recruits in the state in the coming years.

This year’s team will be a solid one and, if all else, an interesting one to watch.  Michigan Basketball won’t return to the prominence of its teams of the 90’s overnight, but don’t be surprised if you find yourself at Crisler Arena cheering on this team in your brand new Adidas hoodie.

Billy Packer's Most Memorable Moments

ESPN is reporting via the Miami Herald that Billy Packer's string of 34 consecutive final fours will end this year. Clark Kellogg is set to replace Packer with the color duties and should be a definite upgrade on the March Madness telecasts.

We'll leave you with a few of our favorite Billy Packer memories below

Rock Chalking Good Time

For having two lopsided National Semi-Final games, the 2008 Men's Basketball Championship game gave people one of the most unexpected finishes in Tourney history. On the 20th anniversary of Danny and the Miracles (and the 25th Anniversary of Jim Valvano and the NC State Wolfpack), the Kansas Jayhawks made one of the most impressive comebacks in NCAA history... While Memphis made one of the all-time great collapses.

If you watched the end of this game thinking, "Great. NOW they start missing free throws. Where was this in Round 2?!"... Join the Club.

With about 2:30 left in the game, I (like many others) had completely written off Kansas and any hope of a comeback. Memphis was rolling, and I was just about to enjoy my newly purchased MLB Extra Innings package (which, ironically, could end up being the cause for a collapse of my own when Final Exams roll around). However, just as I was about to flip over to Indians/Angels, Joey Dorsey fouls out. At the time, I thought to myself, "OK, well they are up seven. Still not much of a chance for a comeback."

And then, the floodgates opened.

Kansas gets fouled and makes a pair to get within 5. Chris Douglass-Roberts does his best Nick Anderson impression by missing four straight free throws in the last two minutes. Derrick Rose splits a pair of free throws that would have won the game. And Mario Chalmers hits a three pointer that will be forever mentioned in the same breathe as the Laettner turn-around and the afore-mentioned NC State Wolfpack dunk to win the game.

It was as if Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS had taken on basketball form, with John Calipari playing Grady Little to Joey Dorsey's Pedro Martinez. Once Dorsey had to come out of the game, all hell broke lose. All of Kansas' points in the OT came from lay-ups or put-backs from the Jayhawk front line... all types of shots that Dorsey had either contested or routinely blocked throughout the game. It allowed KU to complete one of the all-time great comebacks in Championship game history.

Somewhere, in Memphis, the Mario "Bleeping" Chalmers T-Shirts are being printed as we speak.

When the dust from this game settles, Jayhawk fans will see that this game will have been the deciding factor in Bill Self's decision to stay at Kansas, even with a coaching vacancy at his alma mater OSU... That and, of course, the big fat check Kansas is about to write to keep the man to bring them their first Championship on 20 years. The NBA Draft will come calling for the services of Rush, Chalmers, CDR, Rose, and Dorsey, and Coach Calipari will be left wondering if this will have been the best shot for a championship at Memphis that he will get.

Upset City, Baby!!!

March Madness is the most anticipated sporting event in March (apologies to college hockey fans). And it did not disappoint during the first weekend of play. Like most, my bracket is screwed-up beyond all recognition. However, after the dust settled, I found myself only a point out of first place (Thank You, Scottie Reynolds). In case you missed it, here's a breakdown of this weekend's past events/ honors:

Biggest Shot: This goes to Western Kentucky at the buzzer against Drake. Now, I know some people would like to argue San Diego with 1.2 seconds left, which probably was a bigger upset. But that play can't beat a 3 pointer at the buzzer from 2 feet behind the line off a drop pass. Bob Knight said it was the best play out of a timeout he has seen all year. I'll side with the General on this one.

Team to beat: It's a toss-up between UNC and Kansas. Take your pick. Both looked strong in the first two rounds of play. Each team mirrors each other, with both teams having the ability to go 7 or 8 deep by just rotating players in off the bench (Chalmers, Lawson, Rush, Ellington, Hansborough, Ginyard,Collins... Getting the picture?). If things play out, these two will play each other in the national semi-final (in what would be a heavyweight prize fight), with the winner most likely cruising to a national title.

Biggest Upset: I'm going with Davidson over Georgetown. Stephen Curry has beaten two tourney regulars (Gonzaga and G'town) essentially by himself. Yes, he looks like he's twelve and probably couldn't grow a beard if he wanted to... but he's got a grown man's game. I think he's got problems coming up with Bo Ryan and Wisconsin, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop at least 30 on the Badgers. Apologies to San Diego on their tourney run, but when a kid drops 70 in two games (and his name isn't Kobe or Lebron) you need to show him some love.

Biggest Disappointment: Far and away, this was Duke. I didn't have them getting past the second round, but c'mon! They shoot the lights out all year and then basically lay an egg in their two biggest games against Belmont and WVU?! I'm still trying to figure out how they beat UNC. And don't give me the typical Ty Lawson excuse. This team couldn't have beaten Michigan in its last two weeks of play (Yeah, they were THAT bad).

"It's the most wonderful time of the year.."

Tomorrow is the greatest weekday for sports viewing out of the entire year.

At noon, the NCAA tournament and its 64 team field will begin its frantic run for the national championship. It is arguably the greatest day to be a fan because for the next two days, college basketball games will be running for almost 12 hours, starting at noon and ending around 12:15am. Say "Good-bye" to soap operas, and "Hello" to Gus Johnson.

Some of my favorite memories from middle school and high school were on this day when the guys would sneak to the teachers lounge to catch part of the game at lunch time and then take 6 bathroom breaks per class period to keep checking the scores. My religion teacher probably thought I had the prostate of a sixty-eight year old man. This was obviously before the days of laptop computers, and the widely used strategy of college students who bring the computer to watch the games on-demand. Last year, I got to witness a great early round upset by Winthrop at 2pm because of the on-demand program from CBS.

God bless Spanish class at noon.

We all enjoy March Madness. Even if people don't follow college basketball, they are still filling out a bracket or flipping a coin to decide on who they should pick. Watching the evening games with friends is one of the best things about all the coverage. It brings together people who you might not have seen since this time last year, but you still remain the best of friends because of The Tourney and your annual NCAA pool. So with that...

Let the Madness begin.

NCAA Tournament on TV Tomorrow (Thursday 3/20)

Well, March Madness is nearly here. 14 hours and counting. These are the games that you will see tomorrow in the Ann Arbor area on CBS:

Denver, CO 12:20PM: Michigan State-Temple
Washington, DC 2:40PM: Baylor-Purdue
Omaha, NE 7:10PM: Kansas State-USC (Beasley vs. Mayo!!!)
Denver, CO 9:45PM: Notre Dame-George Mason

Again, those are the primary games. While we get to see the entire MSU-Temple game, CBS will move us around from the other three games if they become blowouts. Your CBS announcers for the 8 sites are:

Thursday/Saturday:
Anaheim, CA- Dick Enberg/Carter Blackburn/Jay Bilas
Omaha, NE- Kevin Harlan/Dan Bonner
Washington, DC- Craig Bolerjack/Bob Wenzel
Denver, CO- Gus Johnson/Len Elmore

Friday/Sunday:
Raleigh, NC- Jim Nantz/Billy Packer
Birmingham, AL- Verne Lundquist/Bill ‘Onions' Raftery
Little Rock, AK-Ian (Eye-In) Eagle/Jim Spanarkel
Tampa, FL- Tim Brando, Mike Gminski

No real surprises from the announcers. The one name you might not know is Carter Blackburn. He’s in there to give the great Dick Enberg a break from calling four games in one day. Blackburn calls the two early games on Thursday, Marquette-Kentucky at 2:40pm and Cornell-Stanford at 5:00pm (west coast only). Enberg gets the two night games.

Two final notes:
(1) Matching the schedule with the announcers, you can tell we get Gus Johnson twice tomorrow. No better way to kick off the tourney than with Mr. Johnson.
(2) LET’S GO ORAL ROBERTS!!!