March Madness is a term often
associated with college basketball but for those of us in the college hockey
community it can be just as stressful and just as exciting as the tournament on
the hard-court. The major difference between the two is that the hockey
tournament only invites 16 teams so the competition is ratcheted up right from
the get go. For Michigan hockey fans the past twenty-one seasons have finished
with another trip to the colder version of the big dance and this year has
added another to the streak. Coach Red Berenson has been the model of
consistent success and these twenty-two consecutive appearances in the NCAA
tournament is a collegiate record. Within those two decades and change the
Michigan program has reached the Frozen Four eleven times and has two national
championships. Of course in Ann Arbor the expectation for every team is to come
away with the ultimate prize and this year’s squad is no different. After the
disappointment of an overtime loss in the championship game last season, as
well as the departure of a very impressive senior class that included Carl
Hagelin, Louie Caporusso, Matt Rust, Chad Langlais, and Scooter Vaughn as well
as the early jump to the pros that Brandon Burlon decided to take, the
2011-2012 season began with a lot of doubt. The suspension of star defenseman
John Merrill for the first half of the year certainly didn’t help and with
Michigan dressing two freshman defensemen along with four freshman forwards,
the inexperience of the entire team showed. Even the players who played a key
role in years past: Chris Brown, Luke Glendenning, David Wohlberg, and Greg
Pateryn seemed uncomfortable in their more prominent positions. From November 4th
to December 2nd Michigan went 1-7-1 which led many fans to believe
that this team was simply too young to make a serious run at a CCHA
Championship let alone a National title. And then there was Johnny. Merrill’s
return re-vitalized the team and gave them a base to build on. Pateryn no
longer had to try be as much of a offensive force and Lee Moffie didn’t have to
worry anymore about backing up a rookie. The return coincided with the
discovery of a combination of forwards that made opposing coaches quiver behind
their benches. Wohlberg, Brown, and freshman Alex Guptil all hold size and
speed that can rival any player in the CCHA and probably in the country. All
three of the players exploded offensively, as did A.J. Treais who found a
scoring touch on the second line. All of this was backed up by the superb play
of 5th year senior goaltender and Hobey Baker award candidate Shawn
Hunwick. Hunwick has been the one constant this year, he has had a storybook
career that will unfortunately end with the wherever the wolverines finish
their season this year but he is likely to leave as the all time leader in
Goals Against Average and Save Percentage. When you consider his competition,
Al Montoya, Marty Turco, and Steve Shields, that record is quite an achievement
for someone who never thought they would start a game in a Michigan uniform.
The
regular season was full of excitement but ended with a bit of disappointment as
Michigan fell to the Western Michigan Broncos in the CCHA Championship game 3-2
in a poor performance that can be partially blamed on the fact that they went
to double overtime against a Cinderella story Bowling Green team the night
before. While the loss was tough to take for the players they have known since
the beginning what their goal is for the year and the run to the national title
begins now. Even with the loss to Western, the Wolverines still garnered one of
the four number one seeds in the field of sixteen. Here is how the bracket
looks:
In the Northeast regional in Worchester, Mass. we have
#1 Boston College (#1 Overall Seed) vs. #4 Air Force
#2 Minnesota-Duluth vs. #3 Maine
In the West regional in St. Paul, Minn. we have
#1 North Dakota vs. #4 Western Michigan
#2 Minnesota vs. #3 Boston University
In the East regional in Bridgeport Conn. we have
#1 Union vs. #4 Michigan State
#2 Miami vs. #3 Massachusetts-Lowell
In the Midwest regional in Green Bay, Wisc. we have
#1 Michigan vs. #4 Cornell
#2 Ferris State vs. #3 Denver
Lets begin the predictions in Worchester
Boston College vs.
Air Force
The
number one overall seed and consensus number one ranked team coming into the
tournament is the Boston College Eagles. The perennial sixteen overall seed and
lowly Atlantic Hockey Association champion is Air Force. While this should be
an easy call to make and an easy victory for the Hockey East Champions but as a
Michigan fan I cannot help but remember Andrew Volkening’s 43 save shutout of
the Wolverines in 2009. Granted, Michigan was not the #1 seed and Air Force
doesn’t have Volkening anymore, but they do have Jason Torf and Stephan Caple.
The tandem has a combined 2.13 goals against average, which puts them third in
the country. The sophomore Torf has played less games than his Senior partner
but was put between the pipes for the AHA semi-final and final during which he
gave up only two goals including a shutout in the final, his fifth of the year.
He will have to be more than on his game when he faces BC though; the Eagles
boast the 5th best offense in the country at 3.52 goals per game.
Having personally seen this team play in the GLI I can say they are fast. Very
fast. BC always seems to have top end speed all the way through their roster
and this season is no exception. Their power play is deadly and besides all the
offensive advantages they have over Air Force, Jerry York’s squad also ranks
fifth in team defense this season just two spots behind the Falcons. There is a
reason they are the top team in college hockey right now and as much as I would
like to see BC knocked out in the first round two years in a row, it really
isn’t likely.
Prediction: BC 3-0
Minnesota-Duluth vs.
Maine
The
2-3 games are usually much more fun and the Northeast region version has what
could be one of the best games in the whole tournament. UMD is the defending
national champion and they have been ranked near the top of the polls all year.
Last year’s tournament most outstanding player J.T. Brown returns for his
second year and scored at an amazing pace with 46 points in 37 games but he is
not the leading scorer on the Bulldogs. Travis Oleksuk, who assisted on the OT
winner in last year’s final, has 51 in 39, but he isn’t the top scorer on this
team either. Jack Connolly has 58 points in 39 games including 19 goals and 39
assists, which has made him a Hobey Baker finalist. These three have helped UMD
become the best offensive team in the country at 3.64 goals per game, nearly a
goal better than the next closest team. The lost in overtime to Denver in the
WCHA semi-finals this season but, like Michigan, this team’s goal has always
been defending their national championship so their season starts now. While
Connolly has had a great season even he is not the leading scorer in this game,
and the story for Maine is Spencer Abbott who has 61 points of his own for the
Black Bears, the most in the nation. Abbott is the frontrunner for the Hobey
and everything the Maine does goes through him. He must remind some of the
older fans of Paul Kariya who won the award at Maine in 1993 and led the Black
Bears to a national title. Abbott though, is not Kariya and this team simply
doesn’t have enough to support him against the onslaught that will be the UMD
offense. In the scoring race that this game is bound to turn into Duluth has
too many horses to lose this one to a single player.
Prediction: UMD 6-3
Heading out west now to St. Paul, the site of last year’s Frozen
Four
North Dakota vs.
Western Michigan
The
Sioux were probably the most talented team in last year’s tournament and when
Michigan met them in the national semi-final many Michigan fans assumed that
the ride would be over. Michigan withstood the attack and moved on to the final
and North Dakota went home wondering what might have been. No-dak has once
again, and for the third straight year, won the WCHA, but this team doesn’t
have any Hobey Baker candidates and both offensively and defensively they are
statistically outside of the top ten. It certainly doesn’t seem like such a
scary Sioux team as it as last year or in years past but 25-12-3 doesn’t come
easy in the WCHA and neither does a playoff championship. Western Michigan had
to beat the Wolverines in the CCHA final to secure a berth in the tournament
and are riding high, but the Broncos are not a very talented team and the
goalie they call the big Slubowski is going to have a lot of shots thrown his
way. While the CCHA championship is a great success for Western and they should
put up a decent fight, even a down year North Dakota should be able to take
care of them.
Prediction: No-Dak 5-2
Minnesota vs. Boston
University
Talk
about a rough draw in the first round. Both of these teams spent significant
time at the top of the polls this year and are #2 and #3 in offense. They are
two of the most storied programs in college hockey. A mere .02 points per game
separate the two prolific scorers for both teams, Eric Haula for the Gophers
and Alex Chiasson for the Terriers. But where the two teams differ is between
the pipes. For Minnesota senior Kent Patterson has played the second most
minutes of any goaltender and has seven shutouts, the most in the country.
Kerian Miller, also a senior, has been serviceable but where UM ranks 7th
defensively BU sits at 28th. Both of these squads can, and will,
score but it’ll be the team that does the best work in their own zone that will
come away with the victory in this one and Minnesota has proven that they are
the more likely team to succeed in that department.
Prediction: Minnesota
5-3
Now we turn our attention to the East regional in
Bridgeport, Conn.
Union vs. Michigan
State
Union
is the ECAC champion but, other than the AHA, that is the least impressive championship
in college hockey. Every year it seems an over rated ECAC team rolls through
their conference schedule and ends up as a one seed because of the east coast
bias in college hockey polling. This year that team is Union. Last year the
number one overall seed was ECAC champ Yale and as predicted the Bulldogs went
out in the first round. Union is tied with Minnesota for the nations third best
offense and have the best statistical defense in the country as well but they
have played so many of their games against inferior competition that it is
tough to tell what these statistics actually say about the team. If you look at
the Pairwise rankings that factor in a team’s record against other teams that
are under consideration for the tournament you can see that Unions TUC record
is 9-6-3. They have played 18 games against teams that may have been good
enough to make the tournament. For comparison, Michigan has 18 wins against TUC.
Fortunately for the Dutchmen they are playing against one of the less talented
Michigan State teams in recent memory as many find the Spartans inclusion in
the tournament to be a bit surprising. This game looks to be the least
impressive of the opening round but MSU does have a good chance to take down
the top seed in its region. CCHA
player of the year Torey Krug leads the Spartans into this tournament but other
than him and a decent top line the Michigan State doesn’t have a very
impressive roster. As much as I would like to see a CCHA team take the ECAC
down a peg once again this just doesn’t seem to be the team that can do it.
Prediction: Union 3-2
Miami vs. UMass-
Lowell
This
is a very interesting matchup. Lowell had a rough time in Hockey east this year
which is understandable considering they are an emerging program in a very
tough conference but their success is surprising considering they won a mere
five games last season. The Riverhawks managed to defeat Maine and BU twice
each as well as recording a win over BC earlier in the year. Miami struggled in
the CCHA towards the beginning of the year but was riding an eight game win
streak that began after a sweep at the hands of the wolverines and ended with a
loss to Western in the CCHA Semi-final. It has been Miami’s stingy defense that
Has carried them into the tournament with the senior tandem of Cody Reichard
and Connor Knapp once again finding rhythm that they have seemed to lose at
points in their careers. I’m not sure what having a goalie battle last for four
years says about either goaltender but the two have done a good enough job to
give Miami the second best defense in the nation this year. Last year’s
national leading goal scorer Riley Smith has done an okay job as the main man
after the departures of Carter Camper and Andy Miele but the real spark for the
Redhawks has been the play of quick freshman forward Austin Czarnik who has
drawn a few comparisons to Miele because of his size, speed, and ability to
find Smith open in the offensive zone as Miele did so often last year. Lowell
has a top ten offense and a pretty good goalie in sophomore Doug Carr but they
don’t have any big game experience, which showed in a first round series loss
to Providence in the Hockey East tournament. That could be the major difference
as everything changes once the NCAA’s begin.
Prediction: Miami 4-3
To the final regional: the Midwest in Green Bay.
Michigan vs. Cornell
Michigan
gets the luxury of the only other ECAC team in the tournament in the first
round, but unlike Union, Cornell doesn’t even have the inflated numbers that
come with playing inferior opponents. only scores .64 more goals than they give up and are starting
a sophomore goalie playing in his first Tournament game. Cornell didn’t even
reach the ECAC final after being blown out by Harvard 6-1 in the semis.
Michigan, on the other hand, is the second ranked team in the country with the
fourth best defense and tenth best offense that has been on a tear since its
top line came together. All in all Michigan should really have no trouble with
Cornell but it is always possible that the Wolverines look past this game but
after the loss to Western in the CCHA final and remembering last year’s
heartbreaking loss to UMD Michigan should stay focused and take care of
business in this one.
Prediction: Michigan
4-1
Ferris State vs.
Denver
Denver
was taken to overtime in three straight games during the WCHA tournament before
getting crushed by North Dakota in the final. Ferris fell victim to the
Cinderella story that was Bowling Green State University. If not for the
fatigue of so much OT, Denver may have been WCHA champions; in fact, they had
the same number of conference wins as the Sioux and UMD. For the Pioneers
everything runs through the Shore brothers, Drew and Nick. The two have a
combined 93 points this season playing in 41 and 42 games respectively. Ferris doesn’t have the offensive force
that Denver can put on the ice but they do have Taylor Nelson, the First team
all CCHA goalie whom they have relied on all year. Denver hasn’t really been
able to decide on someone to man the crease with three different players
playing more than ten games this year. Freshman Juho Olkinuora has seen the
most starts and if he lines up across from Nelson the Bulldogs will have a huge
advantage.
Prediction: Ferris
2-1
Ok so that leaves us with eight teams going into the
regional finals on Saturday
Northeast: Boston College vs. Minnesota-Duluth
West: North Dakota vs. Minnesota
East: Union vs. Miami
Midwest: Michigan vs. Ferris State
Boston College vs.
Minnesota Duluth
This
is a matchup many people might have expected to see in the championship game a
couple months ago but a bit of a stumble by UMD knocked them out of a one seed
and BC hasn’t lost once since dropping two against Maine at the end of January.
That’s 15 straight victories by a combined score of 61-19 and the Eagles have
only given up more than two goals once. Duluth had its own stretch of 17
unbeaten that ran from October to the middle of January and ended only six days
before BC’s streak started. The hockey east champions are the hottest team in
the country right now and will also have the luxury of playing Air Force the
night before this game as opposed to Maine. Even with their prolific scoring
offense the Bulldogs do not have the top to bottom speed to hang with Boston
College especially on tired legs. They will have to try to beat up on BC and
take away that advantage but by the time this game reaches the third period the
defending champs simply won’t have enough gas left in the tank to skate the top
seed. Look for Chris Krieder to be the impact player for the eagles as he has
been all year.
Prediction: BC 5-3
North Dakota vs.
Minnesota
This
game has the benefit of being played before this season. The two have met five
times previously this season including the WCHA Championship game, which North
Dakota won 6-3, but in the four regular season meetings the Gophers went 3-1 by
a total score of 16-5. North Dakota got the one seed in this region based
pretty much on the fact that they won their conference, which is nothing to
sneeze at, but this team doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opponents like
they used to as opposed to Minnesota who is a young team but has the speed and
pure talent to beat anyone in the country at any time. The previous title game
loss will be a learning experience for a team who’s top four scorers are
sophomores or freshmen. The senior leadership for UM comes from Patterson in
goal who should be able to handle anything No-Dak can throw at him. The main
disadvantage the Minnesota will have in this game is playing BU the night
before instead of Western but even though the Sioux should win the game the
Broncos will give them a game and the won’t be as fresh as BC will be after Air
Force. It will be another good game between two rivals but this one should go
the Gophers way.
Prediction: Minnesota
5-4
Union vs. Miami
Miami
hits. Hard. They will beat teams up and then allow their top line to take
advantage of tired defensemen that have been roughed up much more than they are
used to in college hockey. Union hasn’t faced anything remotely like the
physical assault they will receive from the Redhawks. They also won’t be used
to goalies as good as Connor Knapp. While Miami certainly doesn’t have its most
talented team in recent memory, Union just isn’t that talented of a hockey
team. They did defeat Michigan earlier in the year during the stretch of time
that Michigan was playing its worst hockey but even in that game the Dutchmen
didn’t look impressive. Harkening back to the Teams Under Consideration record
of both teams where again Union is 9-3-6 whereas Miami is 17-14-1. Miami has 14
total losses on the year mean all of those came against at least decent teams
where union lost four times to teams that didn’t have a chance of making the
tournament. This is still a battle between the two best defensive teams in
college hockey but it isn’t hard to tell which one is really the better team.
Prediction: Miami 2-1
Michigan vs. Ferris
State
Like
the UND-Minnesota game we have the advantage of having seen these two teams
play before. Michigan saw Ferris at Yost twice earlier this year and crushed
the Bulldogs 5-2 and 4-0. Michigan was able to solve the all CCHA goalie in
Nelson while Ferris couldn’t seem to crack the second team tender Shawn
Hunwick. Ferris has been over-rated all year and it showed when they were
beaten by Bowling Green in the CCHA quarterfinals, and when they played
Michigan and Western Michigan who were the two teams just below them in the
CCHA standings. The Bulldogs are big but slow, physical but boring, and good
but not great. Certainly not good enough to beat this Michigan team or reach a
Frozen Four.
Prediction: Michigan
4-1
So we have reached Tampa Bay, the most ridiculous site for a
Frozen Four that I have ever heard of, but that is a conversation for another
day. The four teams we have remaining are Boston College, Minnesota, Miami, and
Michigan. Two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, I really went out on a limb there
didn’t I? But these are some great programs that have been around the top of
the college hockey world for the past 10 years and, excepting Miami, have
reached the NCAA tournament more than any other teams. No matter where these
teams play the game it will be fun to watch.
Boston College vs.
Minnesota
This
game will be fast, very fast. Minnesota is one of the only teams in the country
that can skate with BC and score with BC. Hockey east is a good conference but
even BU didn’t have enough pure talent to matchup with BC when they were on.
Minnesota does. But it is young talent. The eagles have more experience than
the Gophers and even though they went out in the first round of last year’s
tournament, they at least got there. Minnesota didn’t. In this kind of game the
experience factor can be huge, especially for goaltenders, which is the only
position where UM has the experience. Patterson will be huge in this game but
the better keeper statistically is Parker Milner for BC, who’s 1.81 GAA is 5th
best in the nation. It all seems to be setting up for BC to make another run to
the national championship game. But not so fast. If BC were to win this game it
would be their 18th victory in a row. There is no team this year
that is good enough to win 18 games in a row and seeing as how Minnesota will
be the best team BC has played during this streak it seems like this would be
the game to end it. BC is probably a better team this season overall but at a
certain point every team has a game where they just can’t score or when a
goalie just can’t find the puck, or when bounces fly in all the wrong
directions, whatever the cause may be BC’s run will end at the hands of the
Gophers.
Prediction: Minnesota
5-4
Michigan vs. Miami
This
has been one of the best rivalries in college hockey in the past decade. All
Michigan fans remember Ft. Wayne and all the Miami fans that have traveled to
Yost during the Rico Blasi era know how many times they have left Ann Arbor in
disappointment. The two most savage fan bases in the CCHA hate each other
almost as much as the teams on the ice, which creates a huge home ice advantage
for either squad. This year was no different. When Michigan went to Goggin they
came away with a single point in a shootout loss, When Miami visited Yost they
left with nothing. Tempers boiled over at the end of the Saturday game when
Chris Brown and Will Webber dropped the gloves and went at it after a long
series of rough plays by both teams. Weber does a good job of antagonizing
opponents while toeing the line between aggressive and dirty but Brown is no
stranger to the penalty box himself, the two were just the players on the ice
most likely to fight when the game reached its tipping point. Both teams
dropped their final CCHA game to Western after poor performances and on paper
this looks to be a very even matchup with Michigan having the edge talent wise.
Since the game is in Tampa as well another advantage is removed from the
equation for either team. The key in this one will be Special teams and
goaltending, but not in the traditional way. Hunwick won’t need to stand on his
head to beat Miami; they only have one line that can legitimately scare
Michigan defenders but Hunwick can’t allow a bad goal that gives Miami a
confidence boost. In a rivalry game one bad play by a team that is capitalized
on by the other can have a bigger swing in momentum than even the most
beautiful goals. Michigan’s power play has also been abysmal this season and
Miami is the 6th most penalized team in the nation, this is a great
thing for the Redhawks. They will take penalties to try to get inside
Michigan’s heads knowing that killing off a penalty not only will give them a
momentum boost but allow even more doubt to start creeping in to the minds of
Michigan players who just can’t seem to score with the man advantage. If
Michigan plays smart and cool then defeating Miami should be no problem but if
they play into Miami’s hands, it could be a tough battle. Look for Hunwick and
the Michigan defensemen’s reaction the first time someone sprays the Wolverine
net minder with snow or slashes at his glove. If they remain calm Michigan will
win. If they start a scrum Miami will take this one.
Prediction: Michigan
4-3
So here we are again Michigan fans, back to another National
Championship game against a team from Minnesota.
National Championship
Michigan vs. Minnesota
These
two teams have the most NCAA tournament appearances of any programs in college
hockey. They have 14 national Championships and 43 Frozen Four’s between them
and they have turned out some of the best college hockey players of all time.
This season, though, has been marked by parity and no one team seems to have
that quality that hockey fans can see and know that this team is the team to
beat. Last year it was North Dakota the Year before that it was Boston College,
but many, many years that tile has fallen on Michigan and Minnesota. These two
are matched up well with Michigan, like Boston College having a similar talent
level as the Gophers and the top end speed that goes with it. Kent Patterson
and Shawn Hunwick are both strong goalies that can win games for their teams but
often don’t need to. Just to try to measure the amount of talent in this game,
Michigan has 11 drafted players on its roster, as well as Phil Di Giuseppe who
will be drafted in April, and Minnesota has 16. That is an entire roster worth
of NHL talent between these two teams so you can be assured that the game will
be wide open, fast, sharp. There is just something about this Minnesota group
that makes me feel as though they have what it takes to go all the way.
Michigan’s disappointment last year will be the driving force behind their run
to title and that hunger that has been brewing all season is finally ready to
be fulfilled, but I believe the Wolverines will go another year without
reclaiming the ultimate prize in college hockey. Minnesota is just too strong
up front, and while Michigan came away with a win over BC earlier in the year,
it was a lucky victory and such things rarely happen twice against offensive
juggernauts. If Hunwick plays the game of his life and Michigan can get a few
bounces then they could certainly come away with this one because the
difference between these teams is so small but I feel as though the Golden
Gophers will be the ones raising the National Championship banner next year
Prediction: Minnesota
5-4