Michigan vs Oregon Preview (Yes, there still are more games to play this season)

Ok, so last week happened. It’s over, done with and now that the stories about the shocking upset wind down and the how hot is Lloyd Carr’s seat talk are coming to an end, it’s time for another game. Yes, that’s right; Michigan does have 11 games left to play this season. Oregon comes to town on Saturday with kickoff scheduled for 3:30. Unlike last weekend’s game, this one will be available on TV to non Direct TV subscribers through ABC.

Michigan Defense vs Oregon Offense:

Let’s start with the worst performing unit from last week for the Wolverines. Michigan’s defense was atrocious during the first half against Appalachian State, giving up 28 points on 239 yards. They improved in the 2^nd half, forcing three turnovers and yielding just two field goals, but the damage had already been done. We saw true freshman Donovan Warren take over cornerback duties in place of Johnny Sears and Brandent Englemon, a 5^th year senior, replaced Sophomore Stevie Brown at free safety after halftime, so we have to assume that Warren and Englemon will start the game on Saturday.

For Oregon last week, their offense was able to pile up 473 yards, 339 of them coming on the ground. Senior quarterback Dennis Dixon led the way for the Ducks rushing for 141 yards on just 15 carries including one 80 yard touchdown run. Dixon also completed 9 of 15 passes for 134 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Juniors Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson split the carries in the backfield, running for 67 and 70 yards respectively.

Looking ahead to Saturday’s game the question looms, which Michigan defense will show up? The unit that gave up 28 points to a Division-IAA team? Or the unit that forced three turnovers while allowing just two field goals in the second half? If the answer is the later, then Michigan is good shape against Oregon. The Ducks run a similar offense that the Mountaineers ran. Their quarterback, Dennis Dixon is a threat to run at any time and head coach, Mike Bellotti takes advantage of his athleticism with designed runs and lots of options. Oregon likes to spread the field which opens up lanes for Dixon to run. They will also run the option out of their spread formation. We all know Michigan’s historical struggles against spread offenses, so Oregon will be another tough test for Ron English’s inexperienced defense.

Edge: Oregon

Michigan Offense vs Oregon Defense:

Michigan had a so-so offensive day against Appalachian State last weekend, amassing 479 yards and 32 points. While those numbers seem impressive enough, we’ve come to expect more from this highly touted offense against a Division IAA team. We heard all off-season about how great this offense would be with Hart, Henne, Long, and Manningham all returning. Mike Hart injured his thigh on the first play of the game and still managed to rush for 188 yards on 23 carries with three touchdowns despite missing about a quarter and a half due to that injury. Hart single-handedly put Michigan on his shoulders and brought them back to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, dragging a few Mountaineers with him. Hart was the lone bright spot of the Wolverine offense and demonstrated why he is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. Chad Henne on the other hand overthrew receivers, and made a horrible decision throwing a pass on the run, across his body for an interception in the red zone. We could live with a mistake like that if he were still a freshman or sophomore, but now as a senior and four year starter, poised to break most of Michigan’s quarterbacking records turnovers like that can’t happen. Manningham was unable to get open on the deep patterns that we were accustomed to seeing from last season. Despite his final catch that set up the potential game winning field goal, Manningham had a rather unimpressive game as well.

Oregon’s defense did not play all that well against Houston last week, giving up 545 yards and 27 points. 315 of those yards came on the ground, so if Mike Hart can stay healthy he should be able to have another 150-200 yard day. Oregon’s defense is led by sophomore cornerback Jarius Byrd, the co-freshman of the year last season in the Pac-10. I see Chad Henne rebounding and taking advantage of the fairly young Ducks defense.

Edge: Michigan

Special Teams:

For the Wolverines, kick protection is something that needs to be fixed up immediately. Having a first year kicker is worrisome enough, there’s no excuse for not being allowing two blocked field goals from an Appalachian State line that was give up an average of 20 lbs. Lloyd Carr blamed both of last week’s blocked kicks on poor protection, not low kicks from Jason Gingell (which by the way is pronounced Gin-Gel. Gin, like the drink that would help you forget about the fact that the winningest football team of all time, Michigan lost to a Division IAA opponent and then gel, as in, “I sure hope that the Michigan field goal protection unit gelled during this week of practice) Gingell did knock both kicks that went unblocked through the uprights, so we can’t fault him too much on his debut. It is also worth noting in regards to Michigan’s field goal protection that on Gingell’s first attempt, after some confusion on the sidelines, only 10 players were lined up for the snap. Mike Hart who was still out of the game with the injured thigh tried running on to line up at the last minute. Here’s hoping that we don’t see any of that this weekend. Zoltan Mesko had another great game punting the ball, averaging 48.7 yards on three punts, including a long of 56 yards.

Johnny Sears had difficulty holding onto the football while returning punts and kicks last week, however when he was able to catch the ball he showed some glimpses of why he’s the man back there along with Brandon Minor. Michigan hopes to get sophomore Carlos Brown back for the game on Saturday and he might get a look returning punts and kicks before the game is done.

The Ducks special teams are led by junior kicker Matt Evensen as well as true freshman Daniel Padilla. Evensen was 2-2 on field goals last week vs Houston, while both kickers successfully alternated on PAT’s. Evensen handles kickoff duties for the Ducks. Junior Josh Syria is the Oregon punter in his first year handling punting duties after transferring from Wofford.

The return game for the Ducks is led by running back Jonathon Stewart who averaged 34 yards per return last Saturday including a long of 44 yard. Patrick Chung returns punts and he also had a pretty good day against Houston with an average of 21.5 yards on two returns.

Edge: Oregon

Intangibles:

As if the Wolverines needed any extra motivation following last week’s loss to Appalachian State, the Wolverines plummeted from #5 to out of the rankings in both the Coaches and AP Polls. Oregon has to travel all the way across the country and play in front of 110,000 fans, of which some might still believe that the rest of the season is worth playing and be into the game. The crowd caused Appalachian State to jump early for a few false start penalties and also may have played a role in receiver Brian Quick’s dropped pass when he was standing all alone in the Michigan endzone. The 3:30 kickoff will be more popular with the students, so hopefully the crowd can work in favor of the Wolverines. Along the same lines, watch out if the Wolverines struggle early on, as the boo-birds were out in force by halftime of last week. They won’t be as patient on Saturday.

Edge: Michigan

My Pick:

Michigan has now lost three games in a row dating back to last season. Coming off such a horrible loss to Appalachian State, I think the embarrassment from the loss will motivate the players who will be determined not to lose another game at home. While Michigan’s initial goal of a national championship are shot and this game does not figure into their next goal of a big-10 championship, I don’t see them losing two games in a row to open the season. This game is all about pride for the Wolverines, and I think they will win with relative ease. On paper, Oregon looks like their offense can cause headaches for the Michigan secondary, however they don't play the games on paper. Michigan fans might remember the last embarrassing home loss to Notre Dame in 2005. Well the next week, the Wolverines went out and put up 50 points on Eastern Michigan. Oregon is a much better team than Eastern, but the Michigan players will be fired up and seeking to avenge last weeks loss. Oregon may hang around for a quarter or two, but I see Michigan pulling away a bit in the second half. For Oregon, it’s just a bad time to be paying a visit to the Big House.

My score: Michigan 41 Oregon 17

Michigan player of the game: Mike Hart - 150 yards, 2 touchdowns