MLB Offseason Preview Part I

With the GM meetings underway in Orlando, Rumor Season 2007-2008 has officially begun! And what better way to begin Rumor Season ’07-’08 than with the WCBN Top 10 Free Agent List and predictions as to where all of these players will end up? Let us begin with the free agents:

1. Alex Rodriguez: Obviously A-Rod is the crown jewel of the free agent class – he’s the guy for teams who think they’re “one player away,” and he is the only profitable man who costs upwards of $300 million for teams who are trying to raise themselves out of relative obscurity. A-Rod is still in his prime, at only 32 years old, and is coming off a season in which he hit .314, while leading the AL with 54 HRs and carrying the Yankees from the bottom of the scrapheap in mid-May to the top of the Wild Card race by September. So who is not trying to get this guy? Well, there are some owners who actually do have a cap on what they’re willing to give to one player (rumors indicate that the Angels are unwilling to give more than 17% of their salary budget to one player), and some GMs simply aren’t allowed spend $30 million a season total. With that having been said, there are plenty of teams who are in the running….

Candidates: Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Mets, Yankees?

Where does that leave us? Well, all of these teams have issues when it comes to signing A-Rod. While they have a team that could win now and have a vacancy both at 3B and the spot in the order that protects Vladdy, the Angels apparently don’t have the money; the Dodgers have Andy LaRoche coming up to play 3B, nobody knows how much money they have to spend this offseason, the relationship between Joe Torre and A-Rod is probably overstated, and Scott Boras and the Dodgers simply don’t get along; the Giants are getting rid of Bonds’ contract, but that’ll probably account for half of A-Rod’s, and they are more than one player away – way more – and the buzz has been that they are shopping frontline starters like Tim Lincecum, Noah Lowry, or Matt Cain to try and get hitting in the trade market; the Cubs aren’t going to get sold, and Aramis Ramirez is just fine at 3B at Wrigley; the Red Sox Nation hates A-Rod, and Mike Lowell looks as though he’s going to re-sign with the BoSox; the Tigers just acquired Edgar Renteria, so they may have their hitting situation dealt with, and there hasn’t been too much talk coming out of Detroit about A-Rod, but given their good working relationship with Boras, they’re hard to ignore; the Mets might be the most interesting team on this list, because they have plenty of money, a new ballpark opening up in 2009, their own TV station, and, in short, the resources to make this $350 million investment an extremely profitable one – with that having been said, Jose Reyes and David Wright comprise possibly the best left side of the infield in baseball, and moving Wright, who’s now a gold-glove 3B to 1B or 2B could be disastrous from both the team’s defensive standpoint and Wright’s mental standpoint – plus, the Mets then must decide to not go after Luis Castillo or shop Carlos Delgado, while ensuring the ownership that A-Rod won’t ruin the chemistry on a very affable team – sounds like a tough sell; finally, the Yankees are still in this thing. Reports out of New York last week are that A-Rod would still be open to signing with New York, and while Hank Steinbrenner made it very clear that A-Rod wouldn’t be welcomed back to Yankee Stadium, can we really trust that the Yankees won’t be involved in the negotiations over the best free agent since, well, A-Rod at age 25?

Prediction: In a battle between teams trying to woo A-Rod to Hollywood, the team that actually plays in LA wins out… A-Rod to the Dodgers.

2. Torii Hunter: This defensive stalwart will be patrolling CF somewhere next year, the question is whether it will be in Minnesota or elsewhere. The Twins have internally discussed making a play to resign Hunter while potentially unloading Johan Santana for a huge source of young talent, but before we get crazy, lets discuss the contenders….

Contenders: Twins, Rangers, White Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Astros

I sincerely believe that many more teams can pop into this discussion, because very few teams are actually settled at CF, and the consensus among MLB GMs at the meetings in Orlando has been that Torii Hunter is head and shoulders above Andruw Jones in the CF pool. With that having been said, the buzz is all about the Rangers and how they’re ready to spend on Hunter.

Prediction: I don’t see Hunter failing prey to the same predator that doomed A-Rod and every other batter that has signed with Texas – you simply don’t win there. Hunter has always been a winner in Minnesota on small payroll squads, and he’ll want to continue that trend with a team that has a deep pitching staff and the potential to go back to the World Series for the second time in four years… Torii to the White Sox.

3. Mike Lowell: Oh boy, is this guy good. He plays solid defense, hits the heck out of the ball, and just won a world series. His numbers, however, were way better at Fenway, and some question how he’ll hit in pitcher-friendly parks.

Contenders: Red Sox, Yankees

The Red Sox apparently are very confident that they’ll bring back both Schilling and Lowell… well Schilling signed, and Lowell will probably be next.

Prediction: Lowell to the Red Sox

4-6: The Yankees Trio: Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte: All of these guys have different stories, but they will all end up returning to the Yankees. Posada will spark a huge bidding war between the crosstown rivals from New York who both need catchers, but in the end he’ll just be using the Mets to drive up the price on the Yankees, who will bite the bullet and give Posada the 4^th year (or “DH year” basically) he wants at around $13 million per season. Rivera has all of the bargaining power in the world, with Torre gone and the only other viable closer option on the market being the enigmatic Francisco Cordero. Rivera’s heart is in New York though, and with the negotiations recently starting between Rivera and the Yanks (3 years, $39 million reportedly was the opening offer), I can’t imagine they end without his signature next to the X. As for Pettitte, I just don’t see him retiring when he still has enough in the tank, and with the Yankees pitching stuff in desperate need of a veteran anchor for their starting staff (Wang, Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy don’t exactly scream experience), they’ll throw a huge one-year deal at Pettitte, and he’ll stay.

7. Barry Bonds: The name should say enough – steroids, media, clubhouse poison, and oh yeah, the best bat in the major leagues when healthy… that’s a big if, especially for NL clubs. Lets get right to the contenders, and please remember, given the lack of questions that Bonds answers even when he’s on a team, this is purely speculation based on who can afford him, handle him, and needs him.

Contenders: Padres, Athletics, Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Cardinals

All of the squads mentioned are very interesting, and all have one very glaring need: a power threat. The Padres lead the list because, even though they are in the NL, they have a young clubhouse which would be forced to respect Barry Bonds, and they are quite possibly the team that best fits the “one hitter away” category (Peavy and Young aren’t exactly going to fight the Padres ownership on getting Bonds). The A’s allow Barry to keep his home, play DH, and potentially take some fans with him on a team with a deep pitching staff and a gaping hole at cleanup. The Rangers are always looking to spend, the Angels and Yankees need someone with power in their lineup, and as for the Cardinals, well Tony La Russa can handle anyone, and the Cardinals don’t exactly field a lineup filled with sluggers.

Prediction: Barry goes where it makes the most sense, as Billy Beane swallows his pride and goes for it all in 2008… Barry to the Atheltics

8. Carlos Silva: Yes, Carlos Silva is the 8^th best free agent on the market, and no, it’s not because he’s better than Aaron Rowand or the slew of Japanese imports coming into the majors this offseason. It’s because he’s a starting pitcher, and a perfectly mediocre one in the mold of last year’s Gil Meche or Jeff Suppan, and therefore he’ll receive interest from EVERYONE.

Contenders: Everyone

Who doesn’t need a starting pitcher who will eat innings and give you an ERA under 5?

Prediction: (No bias here, I promise) Unlike the Dodgers and a bunch of other teams who plan on bidding for starting pitching, the Mets have zero prospects and a ton of cash to play with after “the collapse.” With names like A.J. Burnett, Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, and oh yeah, Johan Santana, out there, teams with prospects are not going to go as crazy over Carlos Silva as the Mets will. The Mets will need to replace Glavine when he walks to go to the Braves, and Silva is their guy. Silva to the Mets.

9-10. Aaron Rowand and Andruw Jones: And yes, the order of those names was done with a purpose. Aaron Rowand is a much better player than Andruw Jones, even though Scott Boras might get Jones more money because of the value of his name and the player he used to be. Jones looked lethargic in CF this year (he had no business winning a gold glove), struck out more than Randy Johnson would have if he played 162 games, and let his team fade away in September. As for where these guys go, refer to the contenders list on Torii Hunter… everyone needs a CF, it’s just a question of how it all sorts itself out.

Predictions: Now that the Dodgers have signed A-Rod (in this fantasy world that is), they’ll need to keep Juan Pierre at CF. The Braves work hard to replace Jones, and will wind up settling on a guy who impressed everyone in the NL East last year. Rowand to the Braves. As for Andruw Jones, Scott Boras will manage to start a bidding war between the Astros and Rangers. The team with more money wins, because it’s Boras. Jones to the Rangers.

There you have it folks. Trade Rumors are to come in next week’s edition of Rumor Season ’07-’08.

- Jeremy Kreisberg