Michigan Hoops: Reason for Optimism

Sure, it doesn't look good.  Michigan is 1-5 in its last six games and two games under .500 in the Big Ten for the first time all year.  That 10-2 start seems like a long time ago. If the Big Ten conference tournament started today, Michigan would face Wisconsin in the opening round with Michigan State looming in the next round.  Yet, in my judgement, Michigan needs ONLY 4 more wins to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in decade.  A 8-10 finish in the Big Ten would put the Wolverines on the bubble, but I project their RPI and non-conference wins would put them in.  With the weakness of other "BCS" conferences (Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC) and mid-major leagues (MVC, A-10), I think the Big Ten will get 7 teams in to the NCAA tournament. Let's dissect the remaining schedule:

2/5: Penn State- A must-win, plain and simple.  Going through multiple scenarios, I failed to find one where Michigan makes the Tournament without first beating PSU.  Like when the Wolverines played Northwestern a couple weeks ago, Michigan gets a Penn State coming off their first ever win in East Lansing on on Sunday. While Penn State has been the surprise team in the Big Ten this year, I think it is too much to ask that they win consecutive games on the road in the state of Michigan.  The Wolverines are the more desperate team and will win, in a similar fashion to the Northwestern game.

Projection: WIN

2/7: @ UConn- The lone non-conference game remaining on the schedule is one in which Michigan has nothing to lose, as their RPI will rise win or loss.  The size of UConn with Thabeet is a major problem and I'd be surprised if Michigan was competitive, especially if now #1 UConn loses to Louisville tonight.

Projection: LOSS

2/10: Michigan State- In the unbalanced Big Ten basketball schedule, rivalry games are not protected and therefore Michigan gets MSU only once and on their home floor.  MSU is a legitimate top ten team and final four contender and will probably out-rebound Michigan by a 2-1 margin.  That being said, I think Michigan will keep it close before MSU pulls away late.

Projection: LOSS

2/15:  @ Northwestern- NW has been playing as well as anyone in the conference since mid-January. NW, OSU, Wisconsin and Michigan are likely battling for 2 NCAA spots.  While I'm still not sold if NW is a tournament team, I expect huge games from Craig Moore and Kevin Coble in this win and a 8 point NW win.

Projection: LOSS

2/19: Minnesota- While the Gophers have size with Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson down-low, with the exception of the Wisconsin game, they have been a prototypical Big Ten team, winning big at home and losing by a large margin away from home. Michigan cannot afford any more home losses if they are to make the tournament and I think they'll squeak out a huge win over Tubby Smith and Minnesota right before spring break.

Projection: WIN

2/22: @ Iowa- Like the PSU game this week, this game at Iowa is a must-win for the Wolverines tournament chances. With the backloaded conference schedule and the difficulty of the remaining home games, Michigan has to win at least 1 on the road.  This is certainly their best chance, even though the Wolverines will play a much better and healthier team (with Cyrus Tate) than they saw at Crisler 3 weeks ago.  Michigan by 4 in OT.

Projection: WIN

2/26: Purdue- It won't help that this game is over spring break, but Michigan-Purdue will still attract a large crowd. I think Manny will be fired up to play Purdue again following his ejection in West Lafayette this past weekend. While this win would certainly constitute an upset, Michigan is certainly going to need a few to get into the Tournament. Michigan by 5.

Projection: WIN

3/1: @ Wisconsin- As poor as Wisconsin is playing right now (3-6) and as well as Michigan played at the Kohl Center last year (only lost by two), I don't like the matchup for the Wolverines, especially with Jon Leuer coming off the bench.  Easy win for Wisconsin.

Projection: LOSS

3/8: @ Minnesota- This game could have great meaning for Minnesota, in terms of Big Ten tournament seeding.  I would be shocked if Michigan would win at Minnesota on Senior Day. Minnesota by a comfortable dozen.

Projection: LOSS

Overall, through my calculations, I have Michigan going 4-5 in their final nine games and finishing the year at 18-13 (8-10), a record likely good enough to secure a bid for the NCAA Tournament.  The 4 most important remaining games on the schedule are Penn State, Minnesota, @ Iowa and @ Northwestern.  Michigan MUST win 3 of those 4. Certainly, it will be interesting to see how things play out over the final month of the season. Stay tuned...