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Last season's offense was a disaster. I do not want to spend much time on it so here's the summary. Quarterbacks: Terrible; O-line: Terrible; Backfield: Injured and no blocking; Receivers: Bad QB play, no chance to make plays, turned the ball over on special teams. All of this led to an offense worse than I could have imagined. We should have known since Rich Rod is bluntly honest and almost always looked frustrated and claimed the offense was not up to speed during last fall's camp. But I chose to ignore the signs and naively expected an ok offense. Needless to say I could not have been farther from the truth. Time to move on.
The good news this year is that Rodriguez has seemed relatively happy after each practice and has been impressed with the way the offense has come along. Again, with other coaches this might be coach speak, but Rodriguez has proven to genuinely express his opinions on the team. Couple this with the fact that the entire offensive line is back with a year under its belt in the system, the depth has vastly improved, the backs and receivers are talented, and at least two talented QBs are on the roster, and this offense should actually be pretty good.
This offense is based around speed and getting playmakers the ball in open space. Michigan now has some relatively experienced, fast playmakers, two mobile quarterbacks, and a serviceable offensive line to give those guys time to make plays. While the youth at quarterback will lead to inevitable mistakes, there should be many less mistakes than we saw a year ago.
Quarterbacks:
After last year, nobody wants to see #8 Nick Sheridan get any more snaps. Sheridan's numbers were god awful completing just 46% of his passes for just 2 TDs to 5 INTs in eight games played. Threet at least had more TDs that INTs throughout the year with 9:7. Coaches, however, maintain that Sheridan is a viable option at quarterback and that he has vastly improved from last year. While I'm sure Sheridan has the best knowledge of the system out of the three QBs (Sheridan, #5 Forcier, and #16 Robinson), one must take into account the ability of a quarterback to execute the offense against good competition under pressure. As far as talent and physical ability, Forcier and Robinson are way above Sheridan. From the few bits of practices that I have seen, Sheridan has improved his throwing ability. But it still lacks the pop that Forcier's throws have and even Robinson's throws. Forcier does have a confidence about him and arm strength and accuracy that Sheridan does not even come close to. Even Robinson has surprised many with his ability to throw the ball, in addition to being the fastest (or 2nd fastest) player on the team. His tendency from the first week of camp to overthrow receivers in the flats has diminished greatly and he is much more accurate now.
Still, perhaps Sheridan's decision making has kept him in this race. We will see Sheridan get snaps on Saturday, but we now know Tate will get the first snap of the game and likely the first drive or two. Due to Forcier's physical abilities,
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And oh yeah, Denard "Shoelace" Robinson. The lightning fast QB who also has an arm is in the mix. While many might assume he was a run first QB, he was far from it. His completion percentage in high school was below 50%, but part of that may be because he threw the ball an awful lot. For his career, the speedy Robinson had over 4700 yards
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The lack of experience is the obvious concern here. Forcier and Robinson will make poor decisions at times during the season. The key is that neither of them tries to do too much. Forcier has said all the right things in that he says his only job is to "manage the offense" and not try to do too much. However, Forcier has a swagger about him that makes me believe he will force some ill-advised passes down field from time to time. Still that's better than the floating ducks Sheridan lofted up at times a year ago. So the freshmen will make mistakes. But to what extent can they minimize them? The coaching staff and teammates of the freshman QBs have to find a way to keep Forcier and Robinson relatively relaxed throughout the year. Judging from the last practice on Wednesday, this team does seem to be very relaxed and loose as well as very tight. This will go a long way to keeping Forcier and Robinson down to Earth and realistic about when to go for big plays and when to settle for less. But as Rich Rod says, we will not know until we see them in a game.
Preseason QB Grade: C+. Forcier and Robinson alone greatly increase the talent of this unit from a year ago. Last year was a disaster, but the fact that Rodriguez now has two of his own guys here (highly touted guys at that) will give this team a much higher ability to strike big plays. But they are freshmen and the uncertainty that comes with that means this position is questionable. Sheridan will play early in the season, but barring injury I expect him to be more of a coach as the year goes on (at least I hope so). David Cone's general suckiness brings this unit out of B range and into the Cs. I know he won't play, but why is he still on scholarship?
Offensive Line:
The quarterbacks will not be able to do anything without a drastically improved O-line. Last year's injury-riddled, depthless, inexperienced unit was the main reason for Michigan's offensive troubles last year. The QBs were not great, but they never really had time to show what they could do because the O-line was a sieve. This season, every one is back with a year under their belt, Schilling is at his natural position (Guard) and the addition of the talented redshirt freshman adds actual depth which was nowhere to be found last season. At the beginning of camp, I was shocked to see the great shape that all the linemen were in. Tim McAvoy was the only player with any sort of a gut and he is now injured and likely would not have started. Everyone else looked lean, quicker, and a little stronger. This should be a vastly improved unit, but not quite great.
The two tackles really struggled a year ago. #71 Mark Ortmann and #72 Mark Huyge are the starters at LT and RT respectively. Neither one is a great talent. However, both can prove to be serviceable this year after another year of Barwis workouts and having a solidified unit around them. Ortmann started every game last year and was expected
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#52 Stephen Schilling may finally blossom into the lineman many have been expecting him to be. He is now at his most natural spot at LG after spending the last few years shuffling between tackle and guard spending most of his time at tackle. He is the most talented lineman for the Wolverines and is starting for the third straight year. Behind him is some actual depth this year. Redshirt freshmen #56 Ricky Barnum and #57 Elliott Mealer are both totally inexperienced, but very talented. They will both see limited action throughout the season, but hopefully Schilling can stay healthy so neither is forced into a full time starting role. Ideally, Barnum and Mealer would get a few reps each Saturday and slowly develop to where they can contribute on a larger scale next season.
To the right of Schilling, at center is second year starter #50 David Molk. Molk was forced into a role he should not have been playing a year ago. However, he probably benefited from the experience as a full time starter. He took some bumps and bruises especially early last season. He is an extremely hard worker and has bulked up a little this year. Molk has always put up big numbers in the weight room, holding seven S&C records for O-linemen, but it was obvious his lack of bulk and knowledge of how to use the strength was lacking a year ago. He holds the program record for squat by squatting 625 pounds, but that strength did not seem to translate to the field. A seasoned Molk should be much better this year, but as with the rest of the line, not quite great yet. I expect to see far less of Molk being shoved around as we saw last year. He should be able to hold his own much more consistently and be better able to use his strength. Behind him is another talented redshirt freshman in #63 Rocko Khoury. Ideally the coaches would like Molk to stay healthy while slowly working Khoury into some gametime reps. A Molk injury would not be good as Khoury is not ready to start yet. Moosman would then have to slide to center therefore reshuffling the line. That could be a big detriment to continuity.
Rounding out the interior linemen is right guard #60 David Moosman. Moosman was solid at times last season, but as with the rest of the line he was inconsistent.
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Preseason O-line Grade: B. This unit was awful last year, but alot of that had to do with the constant injuries and shuffling of the lineup. If the unit stays healthier this year, they will actually be able to build some continuity. With veteran starters and young talent behind them, I think the line will be very solid this year. They will not be perfect and opposing defenses will get into the backfield from time to time, but hopefully far less than last year. These linemen appear to be in perfect shape for the Rich Rod zone blocking scheme that requires some mobility. I think this will lead to a much better running game for Michigan.
Running Backs
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#4 Brandon Minor is now the guy to take hold of this team. After coming on very strong in the second half of last season, despite never being 100% healthy, many are expecting Minor to have a huge year behind the improved O-line. Unfortunately, his health may still prevent him from doing that. He has had a nagging ankle injury throughout camp and will not start this Saturday. He is expected to play, but probably not as much as was thought. Even though Michigan is really deep at running back, a healthy Minor with a solid O-line is poised for a huge year. Hopefully he gets back to 100% quickly and then stays there for a change. Minor averaged 5.1 ypc last season with a terrible offensive line and while being banged up. If healthy he will go over 1000 yards rushing on the year and challenge for 1st team All Big Ten. His combination of power, at 218 pounds, and deceptive speed will be perfect for the Big Ten in the spread and shred. Rich Rodriguez found this out last season against Penn State. Hopefully Minor is healthy enough for us to see more of that.
If he is not healthy, though, Michigan should be ok. #23 Carlos Brown will get the start against Western and also has the chance to put up give numbers IF he stays healthy. With Carlos, the IF is ginormous. He has not been healthy for an entire year at any point in his career. Right now he is 100%. If he can stay that way and Minor gets back to full health, they could be the best one-two punch backfield in the Big Ten along with Saine and Herron at O-State. Brown got his one start last season against NW and rushed for 115 yards. But that was pretty much his entire production for the year as he finished with 122 yards. Hopefully Brown can stay healthy as we all remember is 100 yard games in 2007. Brown is known for his speed, but also has good strength. He will be an interesting back who Michigan can use to manage the clock and at other times get him the ball in open field to showcase his speed.
Behind those two are two very talented young backs. Sophomore #20 Mike Shaw started a couple games a year ago despite being banged up for much of the season. He finished the year with 215 yards averaging 5.1 yards per carry. His best performance was at Minnesota where he had season highs in carries, yardage, and ypc. He had 8 carries for 71 yards at 8.9 ypc. He was not even 100% healthy that game. Shaw's key skills are his speed and elusiveness. I am not sure he is an every down back, at least not yet. But Michigan will probably get him a few carries each game and Shaw should be able to strike some long runs as he did a year ago even though he claims he was injured and would never have been caught from behind as he was in those runs. Shaw had surgery for a sports hernia in the spring and therefore missed much of the spring. He says he is back to full health and Michigan will find a way to get him the ball whether at back or at slot a couple times a game.
Surprisingly listed ahead of Shaw on the death chart is diminutive freshman #2 Vincent Smith. Standing at 5'6" Smith's quickness and "slipperiness" is what stands out. Many have seen the drill from camp where Smith somehow twisted his way out of what seemed to be a sure tackle or two, moving his body in ways no human should be able to. Smith is no doubt a "big play" back who Michigan will try to get the ball to in open space to showcase his quickness. Smith will play situationally in every game and will have a chance to make a big impression. He will play Saturday, perhaps more than Shaw, and will certainly bring the crowd to its feet a few times this season.
Overall, the tailbacks will be very fun to watch and if Minor and Brown stay healthy, this could be one of the top units in the conference. With a true freshman at quarterback, a solid running game will be critical to minimize the pressure the guys feel to force the ball downfield. If Michigan can have success on the ground early in games, it will take a lot of pressure off of whoever is the quarterback. This should lead to minimizing turnovers which were a huge problem last year. Of course they all need to hold onto the football, but none of these guys have been disastrous at carrying the ball lately.
The fullback position is also a strength for Michigan with #44 Mark Moundros as the starter. Moundros has been a block first fullback, but Rodriguez and the coaches rewarded him twice last year in the redzone giving him a rushing TD and a reception TD. Moundros has really developed into a good lead blocker for Michigan. He is not quite up to the status of the great Dudley, but he is a valuable blocking asset for the team. While many are sick of #24 Kevin Grady and his seemingly constant troubles, the coaches say he has been working very hard. That is why he is still on the team and now he is a fullback. I am very curious to see Grady play fullback and actually think he could be quite good. Grady is the strongest back on the team holding backfield records for bench and squat. He is also a huge 5'9" 230 pounds. If he has improved his blocking, he may actually end up seeing the field quite a bit this season. If he holds onto the ball, Michigan may give it to him a few times and he is a much more explosive and dangerous player than Moundros. While Moundros is the guy, I think it's something to watch for and see if Grady does start seeing the field.
Preseason Running Backs Grade: A-. Yes I am may be a little too high on the running backs, but this grade is assuming everyone is fully healthy. With an improved offensive line I really like this group. It also might be foolish of me to assume they will stay healthy given the track record of Minor, Brown, and even Shaw. If there are some injuries, this unit will go back to average in the B range. But when fully healthy there are just too many really good weapons back here and a back in Minor who is one of the best when healthy.
Receivers and Tight Ends:
While no one target really stands out as a go-to guy, Michigan has an absolute plethora of options to go to in the spread. Starting at outside receiver, #13 Greg Mathews is the top guy. He has yet to establish himself as a great receiver and go-to
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The slot position also has alot of options. Rodriguez will sometimes have two slots in the game at the same time and that is a good thing given the depth. The top guy is #9 Martavious Odoms who was the team's leading receiver as a true freshman last year. Odoms proved to be a pretty good receiver last year given the circumstances (no QB and bad O-line). The team likes to get the ball to Odoms quickly in the flats or send him on that wheel route deep. Odoms' quickness is what makes him so dangerous. This
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Though Rodriguez's system seemed averse to tight ends at WVU, last year Rodriguez embraced adding the tight end to the offense. The same seems to be the case this year. Rodriguez's reason for keeping the tight end is Michigan's talent at the position. #86 Kevin Koger played in the final nine games last year as a very talented true freshman. While he looked like a freshman alot of the time, especially blocking, he made some big plays receiving with his athleticism. Koger had 6 catches for 93 yards and the touchdown against Wisconsin. As the season progressed, Koger's blocking improved and he started to look like an athletic veteran tight end. Expect Michigan to try to use Koger's athleticism even more in the passing game this year. With the emergence of #80 Martell Webb as even with Koger on the depth chart, Michigan has two dangerous, big receiving tight ends at their disposal. In addition, highly touted redshirt freshman #88 Brandon Moore will enter the mix. It is unsure how much he will play given the depth ahead of him, but depth never hurt a team. Webb was recruited by many out of high school to be a big receiver. Carr recruited him as a tight end. Webb will be used in the passing attack and should be another solid option.
Altogether, I believe Michigan has 9 solid receiving options not including the running backs. Noone is great yet, but all of these guys should contribute a little at some point during the season. Having this many options can only help the young quarterbacks in my opinion. There will be reliable underneath options on any given play with the tight ends, slots or backs. If Forcier and Robinson are able to improve at going through his progressions throughout the year, Michigan should have an open man on most plays leading to a much more efficient passing attack.
Preseason Receiving Corps Grade: B. Nobody really stands out as a big time playmaker yet, but a solid group of decent pass catchers with talented quarterbacks who should have some time to throw will lead to good things. Very nice depth.
Offense As a Whole
The second year for Rich Rodriguez's offense leads to big improvement. In Rodriguez's first year at West Virginia, the team rushed for 1992 yards total. In year two the team rushed for over 3700 yards and 39 TDs. Passing yardage stayed about the same, but the TD-INT ratio went from 9 TDs:19 INTs to 11 TDs:9 INTs. Team scoring went from 21.4 points per game to 30.5 points per game. A second year in Rodriguez's system has a pretty large impact.
Since Michigan will be playing two true freshman quarterbacks, the leap might not be that drastic, but there will be a large increase in offense productivity. The main concern is turnovers. Michigan had 30 TURNOVERS last season. Michigan had 38 FUMBLES only 18 of them were lost. Those numbers are astoundingly horrific. Granted some of the fumbles happened on special teams, but they were committed largely by offensive players (cough cough Martavious). Even with freshman quarterbacks, I believe interceptions will be down unless Forcier tries to force the ball too much, which I do not think he will do. The main concern is fumbles. Last season, Rodriguez said the staff was working to correct the fumbles, but they kept happening. Rodriguez said Wednesday that he has hardly seen any balls dropped to the turf in fall camp. Hopefully he is right and God please let them hold onto and catch the football.
If the turnovers do go very far down, as I expect them to, this offense could actually be quite good. It would be much better if Forcier had a year or two under his belt, but having a one-two punch at quarterback with one of them being the lightning fast Robinson may help mitigate freshman error? (grasping at straws here). If quarterback play is above average this offense will be really good. Even if they play like freshman, though, it cannot get worse than last year's numbers. It is mathematically impossible for that to happen. Bottom line, offense much better.
Preseason Offense Grade: B-. The offensive line is much better, the running backs should be great, the receiving corps has depth. It does come down to quarterback play this year. Forcier is very talented, so is Robinson, but they are freshman. They will do some things that make us scratch our heads at times. But this should happen far less often than last year when the quarterbacks did not even have time to do anything before a defensive lineman was breathing down their neck. Sheridan is very smart, but physically does not have near the tools that Forcier and Robinson have. The fact that Forcier can throw screen passes much better than Threet or Sheridan alone will make this team much better. The offense should actually be fun to watch this year, but they will struggle at times. The running game will be very important and should improve the most given Rodriguez's track record. Robinson will provide excitement with his feet, Michigan might have two backs go over 1000 yards, and we will actually see what Rodriguez's offense is supposed to look like.
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