NCAA Bubble Talk: Who's In, Who's Out?

We have made our way into March, the best month in sports. Now, less than 2 weeks from Selection Sunday, let's delve into the field of 65. Below is a conference-by-conference breakdown (as of 3/3). Note: I only included wins against Division I opponents.

Big Ten 

Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin

On the Bubble: Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan

Minnesota: 19-8 (8-8), RPI-37, SOS-46, 4-6 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Louisville, Wisconsin, Notable Losses: @ Northwestern, Remaining Games: Wisconsin, Michigan

Ohio State: 18-9 (8-8), RPI-43, SOS-27, 6-8 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Butler, Notre Dame, Miami, Purdue, Notable Losses: @ Minnesota, Remaining Games : @ Iowa, Northwestern

Michigan: 17-12 (8-9), RPI-47, SOS-9, 5-9 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Notable Losses: Ohio State (x2), Iowa, Remaining Games : @ Minnesota

Penn State: 20-9 (9-7), RPI-65, SOS-90, 5-8 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: @ MSU, @ Illinois, Notable Losses: Rhode Island, Remaining Games: Illinois, @ Iowa

Big East

Locks (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia

On the Bubble: Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Georgetown: 15-12 (6-10), RPI-40, SOS-1, 4-8 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: @ Villanova, @ UConn, Maryland, Notable Losses: Cincinnati (x2), Remaining Games: @ St. Johns, DePaul

Cincinnati: 17-11 (8-8), RPI-54, SOS-19, 4-9 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Georgetown (x2), UNLV, Notable Losses: Providence (x2), Remaining Games: @ South Florida, Seton Hall

Providence: 18-11 (10-7), RPI-68, SOS-47, 2-7 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Cincinnati (x2), Notable Losses: St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Remaining Games: @ Villanova

Notre Dame: 15-13 (7-10), RPI-73, SOS-32, 3-11 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Texas, Louisville, Georgetown, Notable Losses: St Johns, Remaining Games: St. Johns

Big 12

Locks (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas

On the Bubble: Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Oklahoma State: 19-9 (8-6), RPI-31, SOS-12, 3-8 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Texas, Siena, Notable Losses: @ Texas A&M, Remaining Games: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma

Texas A&M: 20-8 (7-7), RPI-35, SOS-38, 4-5 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas, Notable Losses: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State, Remaining Games: @ Colorado, Missouri

Kansas State: 19-9 (8-6), RPI-71, SOS-88, 3-4 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: @ Texas, Notable Losses: Iowa, @ Oregon, Remaining Games: @ Oklahoma State, Colorado

SEC

Locks (3): LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina

On the Bubble: Florida, Kentucky

Florida: 21-8 (8-6), RPI-50, SOS-91, 2-6 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Washington, South Carolina, Notable Losses: Tennessee (x2), Remaining Games: @ Mississippi State, Kentucky

Kentucky: 19-10 (8-6), RPI-66, SOS-61, 4-6 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: West Virginia, Tennessee (x2), Notable Losses: @ Ole Miss, Remaining Games: Georgia, @ Florida

ACC

Locks (6): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College

On the Bubble: Miami, Maryland, Virginia Tech

Miami: 16-10 (6-8), RPI-44, SOS-10, 4-7 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Wake Forest, @ Kentucky, Notable Losses: @ NC State, Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech, NC State

Maryland: 18-10 (7-7), RPI-52, SOS-22, 4-9 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: UNC, MSU, Michigan, Notable Losses: Morgan State, Remaining Games: Wake Forest, @ Virginia

Virginia Tech: 17-11 (7-7), RPI-60, SOS-37, 4-7 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, @ Miami, Notable Losses: @ Maryland, Remaining Games: North Carolina, @ Florida State

PAC 10

Locks (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, Cal

On the Bubble: Arizona, USC

Arizona: 18-11 (8-8), RPI-48, SOS-34, 5-7 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, Notable Losses: @ Texas A&M, Remaining Games: Cal, Stanford

USC: 16-12 (7-9), RPI-58, SOS-15, 3-9 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Cal, Notable Losses: UCLA (x2), Remaining Games: Oregon, Oregon State

MID-MAJORS

Locks (6): Memphis, Gonzaga, Butler, Utah, BYU, Xavier, Dayton

On the Bubble: Creighton, Siena, San Diego State, UNLV, Davidson, Utah State, St. Mary's

Creighton: 25-6 (14-4), RPI-39, SOS-105, 1-0 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Dayton, Notable Losses: Northern Iowa, Remaining Games: MVC Tournament

Siena: 23-7 (16-2), RPI-29, SOS-73, 0-4 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Northern Iowa, Notable Losses: Niagara, Wichita St, Remaining Games: MAAC Tournament

San Diego State: 17-8 (9-5), RPI-46, SOS-62, 1-5 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Utah, Notable Losses: @ Arizona, Remaining Games: Colorado State, UNLV

UNLV: 20-8 (8-6), RPI-51, SOS-78, 5-3 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Arizona, @ Louisville, Notable Losses: Cincinnati, Remaining Games: Air Force, @ San Diego State

Davidson: 24-6 (18-2), RPI-67, SOS-165, 1-4 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: West Virginia, Notable Losses: Butler, Remaining Games: Southern Conference Tournament

Utah State: 25-4 (13-2), RPI-32, SOS-130, 1-1 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Utah, Notable Losses: @ St. Mary's, Remaining Games: San Jose State

UAB: 20-9 (10-4), RPI-41, SOS-64, 1-6 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: @ Arizona, Notable Losses: @ Cincinnati, Remaining Games: @ UTEP, Marshall

St. Mary's: 22-5 (10-4), RPI-55, SOS-167, 2-2 vs Top 50, Notable Wins: Providence, San Diego St, Utah St, Notable Losses: UTEP, Gonzaga (x2), Remaining Games: WCC Tournament

Overall, 24 locks along with an additional 31 automatic berths leaves open only 10 slots in the field of 65 among the bubble teams listed above. I imagine there will be a few surprises in the Conference tournaments, leaving open a few less spots (2 or 3).  We'll play it safe and say there are only 7 spots open for bubble teams.  In my opinion, Ohio State and Arizona are IN.  The schedule favors Miami and UNLV to be IN, leaving only 4 at-large bids. This leaves the Florida/Kentucky winner, the Michigan/Minnesota winner, the Oklahoma State/Kansas State winner, Texas A&M, Penn State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Georgetown, Cincy and Providence (11 teams for 4 spots).  At least 1 or even 2 teams from the Big East will get IN, probably Providence and Georgetown.  Yes, I think Georgetown will make the field. Their last two games are very winnable and due the unbalanced schedule in the BIG East, they should have an edge over Cincy and, for that matter, Providence. If that is the case, the ACC, BIG 12, SEC, and BIG TEN only have 2 slots to work with.  Frankly, I am not sure why Creighton is in Joe Lunardi's field.  Moreover, I don't think any of the mid-major bubble teams, outside of UNLV, will be selected as at-large teams. Yes, that includes Davidson. Here are the scenarios: #1: If Kentucky defeats Florida, they are IN. #2 If Florida defeats Kentucky, both need at least 2 wins in the SEC tournament to get IN. #3-If Penn State wins out, they are IN. If PSU splits, they need to win 2 at the Big Ten Tournament. If PSU loses out, they are done. #4- The Michigan/Minnesota winner must win at least 1 at the Big Ten Tournament; win 2 and you are a lock. #5- If Oklahoma State defeats Kansas State, they are in pretty good shape. If KSU wins, both teams are out, unless either makes a long run in the conference tournament. #6- Texas A&M must win vs. Missouri at home and then a few more in Kansas City. #7- Maryland and Virginia Tech have to win out and then do some damage in the ACC tournament to get in.

Confused yet.  Here's how I see things playing out: Kentucky defeats Florida to get IN, leaving only one spot for the ACC, BIG Ten and Big 12. Maryland and Virginia Tech will lose this week knocking them out of the conversation. Penn State will stumble down the stretch and not be in the field, while Texas A&M will lose to Missouri at the end of the season. This leaves Oklahoma State, who will defeat Kansas State, and the Michigan/Minnesota winner. Don't like our chances. Who would have thought that Big Ten may only get 5 teams? Again, this is a very fluid situation with a lot of different scenarios that will likely change on a nightly basis.  All I will say is that Michigan surely does not control its own destiny, as I thought last night. Even if Michigan wins at Minnesota and a game in Indianapolis, their going to need some additional help as well.  Granted, I put Miami and Georgetown into the field (both are under .500 in their conferences), but the road for Michigan is not easy; I'd put the odds at 25%.  Let the madness begin.